Match report →
Thun – Lugano2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.32
Total xG
3.47
Lugano
2.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.61 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2 season average) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Antonios Papadopoulos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Daniel Dos Santos on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Albian Ajeti on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Lugano averages 3.25 goals per game away in the league this season, while Thun concedes 2.75 at home
- Form: Lugano won all 5 of their last 5 matches averaging 4 goals per game, Thun lost 4 of their last 5
- Head-to-head: Lugano won 3 of the 4 meetings since July 2025
Risks
- xG: Lugano generated 1.98 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 4 goals per game
- Rest days: Lugano with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Thun22%
Draw23%
Lugano55%
Double chance
Thun or draw45%
Lugano or draw78%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.32 : 2.14, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
0:2
7%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 4 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
- Lugano: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Lugano: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 3.3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
Lineups
Thun 4-4-2 · Lugano 3-4-1-2
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 54 L. Passavant
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 16 J. Roth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 30 N. Maier
- 9 F. Dursun
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 2 B. Karimov
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 8 A. Grgic
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 91 K. Behrens
- 30 D. Moncada
Substitutes
- 37 L. Dähler
- 14 M. Käit
- 17 A. Balaruban
- 25 T. Spycher
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 15 P. Kristal
- 20 R. Braschi
- 52 A. Ilic
- 80 S. Lengen
- 26 N. Christoffersson
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 7 E. Alioski
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 11 R. Steffen
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 26 M. Costa Marques
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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