Match report →
Sion – Lausanne Sport1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sion
1.95
Total xG
3.14
Lausanne Sport
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.37 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Franck Surdez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Baltazar not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Florent Mollet on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Sion is in 3rd place with 19 points from 10 games, Lausanne Sport 12th with 6 points
- Form: Sion won 3 of their last 5 games, Lausanne Sport 0
- Attack: Sion scored 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 games, Lausanne Sport 0.2 per game
Risks
- Head-to-head: Lausanne Sport won 2 of the last 5 meetings, Sion 1 with 2 draws
- Away form: Lausanne Sport conceded 1 goal per game away in the league this season, compared to 2.2 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Sion54%
Draw25%
Lausanne Sport22%
Double chance
Sion or draw78%
Lausanne Sport or draw46%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.95 : 1.19, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 3.3 cards per game (38 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lausanne Sport: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Sion 4-3-3 · Lausanne Sport 3-4-3
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 28 K. Hajrizi
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 13 W. Boteli
- 29 T. Berdayes
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 2 B. Soppy
- 29 A. Blin
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 18 M. Poaty
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
Substitutes
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 5 N. Sow
- 10 B. Kololli
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 37 F. Sylla
- 19 F. Surdez
- 24 D. Möschinger
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 17 S. Traore
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 51 I. Mendes
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 22 T. Cordier
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