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Zürich – Luzern2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Zürich
1.76
Total xG
3.50
Luzern
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Zürich | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Bledian Krasniqi not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rúben Dantas Fernandes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Goals: Zürich scored 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, Luzern 2.4 goals per game
- Table: Zürich earned 14 points from 10 league matches this season, Luzern 12 points from 10 matches
- Head-to-head: In 5 meetings, Zürich had 2 wins, Luzern 2 wins and 1 ended in a draw
Risks
- Away: Luzern scored 1.2 goals per game away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Zürich38%
Draw25%
Luzern37%
Double chance
Zürich or draw63%
Luzern or draw62%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.76 : 1.74, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Luzern: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Zürich 4-1-4-1 · Luzern 4-2-2-2
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 20 P. Dorn
- 13 B. Freimann
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 24 T. Owusu
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
Substitutes
- 4 J. Segura Portocarrero
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 43 N. Volken
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 46 J. Stiel
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 23 V. Berisha
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 9 A. Grbic
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 29 L. Winkler
- 5 S. Knežević
- 27 V. Villiger
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 15 N. Toggenburg
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