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Young Boys – St. Gallen2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.34
Total xG
3.94
St. Gallen
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Lewin Blum not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alan Virginius on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Chima Okoroji on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Young Boys score 3.4 goals per game at home in the league, St. Gallen concede 1.8 goals per game away
- Table: Young Boys are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games, St. Gallen are 4th with 16 points from 10 games
- Form: Young Boys are undefeated in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, St. Gallen have 2 losses
Risks
- Head-to-head: St. Gallen won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Young Boys, Young Boys won 2
- Defense: Young Boys conceded 2.4 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys53%
Draw22%
St. Gallen25%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw75%
St. Gallen or draw47%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.34 : 1.60, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
3:1
7%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 9 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Young Boys: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Young Boys 4-2-3-1 · St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 4 M. Jenz
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 99 S. Essende
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 68 M. Heydari
- 10 L. Daschner
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 30 S. Lauper
- 31 F. Conte
- 7 A. Virginius
- 17 S. Janko
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 9 M. Sene
- 34 E. Etoski
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 27 K. Csoboth
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
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