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Young Boys – Zürich3 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.48
Total xG
3.70
Zürich
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.14 | +1.14 |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +1.11 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Christian Fassnacht on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Edimilson Fernandes not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Stefan Bukinac on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alan Virginius on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Bledian Krasniqi not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Young Boys score 3.17 goals per game at home this season, Zürich concede 2.4 per game away
- Head-to-head: Young Boys won the last 5 matches against Zürich
- Table: Young Boys are 2nd in the league with 25 points from 11 matches, Zürich are 5th with 17 points
Risks
- Form: Zürich are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Personnel: Young Boys without L. Benito, starting in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys64%
Draw20%
Zürich16%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw84%
Zürich or draw36%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.48 : 1.22, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:1
5%
3:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Young Boys 4-4-2 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 4 M. Jenz
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 13 D. Pech
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 99 S. Essende
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 18 J. Mall
- 30 S. Lauper
- 31 F. Conte
- 7 A. Virginius
- 17 S. Janko
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
- 3 S. Hodža
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 43 N. Volken
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 39 S. Diawara
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