Match report →
Grasshopper – Vaduz2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.58
Total xG
3.52
Vaduz
1.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.17 | +1.17 |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Vaduz scored 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 games, Grasshopper conceded 2.4 goals per game
- Possession: Vaduz averaged 61% possession per game in the last 5 games, Grasshopper 43% per game
Risks
- Away form: Vaduz concedes 2.5 goals per game away from home in the league this season
- Squad: Vaduz without L. Mack, started in 5 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper31%
Draw24%
Vaduz45%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw55%
Vaduz or draw69%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.58 : 1.94, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (14 points lost)
- Vaduz with Lutfi Dalipi starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/5 games, last 19)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Grasshopper 3-4-3 · Vaduz 4-3-1-2
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 44 B. Pllana
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 57 N. Rissi
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 18 Y. Lee
- 17 S. Krasniqi
- 24 K. Goudmijn
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 17 J. Stark
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Substitutes
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 9 N. Muci
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
- 26 C. Konietzke
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 24 L. Akhalaia
- 30 M. Walker
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