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Lugano – Basel2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lugano
2.43
Total xG
3.54
Basel
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lugano | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.14 | +1.14 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.75 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.54 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.54 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Albian Ajeti on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Bekhruz Karimov on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kazeem Olaigbe not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Lugano score 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, Basel concede 1.8 per game away
- Form: Lugano won all of their last 5 games, Basel won 1 of their last 5 games
- Table: Lugano lead the league with 31 points from 11 games, Basel sit 7th with 14 points from 11 games
Risks
- Away: Basel scored 2 goals per game away from home in the league this season
- xG: Lugano generated 2.12 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 3.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Lugano65%
Draw20%
Basel15%
Double chance
Lugano or draw85%
Basel or draw35%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.43 : 1.11, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
7%
2:2
5%
4:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Lugano: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 3.5 cards per game (36 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Basel: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Lugano 3-1-4-2 · Basel 4-2-3-1
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 8 A. Grgic
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 30 D. Moncada
- 91 K. Behrens
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 22 C. Michelin
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 29 M. Cisse
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 5 A. Silu
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 Ž. Celar
Substitutes
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 7 E. Alioski
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 2 B. Karimov
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 44 J. Harder
- 37 G. Koloto
- 18 A. Sow
- 25 C. Louis
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
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