Match report →
Luzern – Sion1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.85
Total xG
3.78
Sion
1.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.17 | +1.17 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Tyron Owusu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franck Surdez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Luzern averages 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Sion averages 2.4 away
- Defense: Luzern concedes 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Sion concedes 2 away
- Head-to-head: Both teams have 1 win and 3 draws from the last 5 meetings
Risks
- Table: Sion is in 3rd place in the league this season with 22 points, Luzern is in 8th with 12 points
- Form: Sion has 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Luzern has 1 win in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Luzern37%
Draw23%
Sion40%
Double chance
Luzern or draw60%
Sion or draw63%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.85 : 1.92, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Luzern 4-2-3-1 · Sion 4-2-3-1
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 20 P. Dorn
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 46 B. Freimann
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 29 L. Winkler
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 28 K. Hajrizi
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 13 W. Boteli
Substitutes
- 9 A. Grbic
- 24 T. Owusu
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 34 D. Xhemalija
- 27 V. Villiger
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 13 B. Freimann
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 5 N. Sow
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 37 F. Sylla
- 19 F. Surdez
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