Match report →
St. Gallen – Servette2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
1.61
Total xG
3.26
Servette
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.17 | +1.17 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Andrin Hunziker on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Both teams have 16 points from 11 games in the league this season (Servette 5th, St. Gallen 6th)
- Shots on target: Both teams averaged 5.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: St. Gallen scored 1.6 goals per game at home in the league this season, Servette 1.6 per game away
Risks
- Form: Servette won 4 of their last 5 matches with 1 loss, while St. Gallen recorded 2 wins and 3 losses
- Head-to-head: St. Gallen won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Servette, with 1 draw and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen36%
Draw26%
Servette38%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw62%
Servette or draw64%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.61 : 1.65, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Servette: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
- Servette: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-1-4-2 · Servette 4-2-3-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 68 M. Heydari
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 14 A. Balde
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 20 J. Simo
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 36 T. Lopes
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Substitutes
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 27 K. Csoboth
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 90 S. Mráz
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 35 A. Vincent
- 78 L. Besson
- 39 Eronis Haxhiu
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