Match report →
Lausanne Sport – Thun4 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.46
Total xG
2.82
Thun
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.14 | +1.14 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.64 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Nicolas Bürgy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Lausanne Sport concede 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Thun 2.67 per game away
- Form: Lausanne Sport suffered 5 losses in their last 5 games, Thun 4 losses in their last 5 games
Risks
- Attack: Thun score 2.5 goals per game away in the league this season, Lausanne Sport 1 goal per game at home
- Head-to-head: Thun won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, Lausanne Sport 1 with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport38%
Draw28%
Thun34%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw66%
Thun or draw62%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.46 : 1.36, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: 3.3 cards per game (38 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 3-4-3 · Thun 4-4-2
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 2 B. Soppy
- 29 A. Blin
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 18 M. Poaty
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 19 J. Bamert
- 23 M. Bürki
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 14 M. Käit
- 15 P. Kristal
- 9 F. Dursun
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 51 I. Mendes
- 80 S. Koné
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 22 T. Cordier
- 37 L. Dähler
- 16 J. Roth
- 25 T. Spycher
- 20 R. Braschi
- 52 A. Ilic
- 30 N. Maier
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 80 S. Lengen
- 26 N. Christoffersson
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