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Luzern – Young Boys2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.75
Total xG
3.99
Young Boys
2.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.56 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Tyron Owusu on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Edimilson Fernandes not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Stefan Bukinac on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alan Virginius on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Young Boys is 2nd in the league with 25 points from 12 games, while Luzern is 8th with 13 points
- Head-to-head: In 5 meetings between the teams, Young Boys won 4 times and Luzern 0 times, with 1 draw
- Home/Away: Young Boys scores 3.2 goals per game away in the league, while Luzern concedes 1.67 per game at home
Risks
- Defense: Young Boys concedes 1.92 goals per game in the league this season, while Luzern scores 2 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Luzern30%
Draw22%
Young Boys48%
Double chance
Luzern or draw52%
Young Boys or draw70%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes75%
No25%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.75 : 2.24, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Luzern 4-2-3-1 · Young Boys 4-2-3-1
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 20 P. Dorn
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 46 B. Freimann
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 29 L. Winkler
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 4 M. Jenz
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 30 S. Lauper
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 9 A. Grbic
- 24 T. Owusu
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 34 D. Xhemalija
- 27 V. Villiger
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 13 B. Freimann
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 31 F. Conte
- 7 A. Virginius
- 17 S. Janko
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 9 M. Sene
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
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