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Grasshopper – Lausanne Sport1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.56
Total xG
2.87
Lausanne Sport
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.47 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Grasshopper is 11th in the league with 10 points, Lausanne Sport 12th with 6 points
- Form: Lausanne Sport lost their last 5 matches, Grasshopper took 2 draws and 3 losses
Risks
- Defence: Grasshopper conceded 2.8 goals per match in their last 5 games
- Squad: Grasshopper without M. Hübel, who started in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper42%
Draw28%
Lausanne Sport30%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw70%
Lausanne Sport or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.30, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Lausanne Sport: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Lausanne Sport 4-3-3
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 44 B. Pllana
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 57 N. Rissi
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 11 G. Morandi
- 18 Y. Lee
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 18 M. Poaty
- 91 F. Mollet
- 29 A. Blin
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
Substitutes
- 81 J. Vonmoos
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 9 N. Muci
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
- 45 E. Avdullahu
- 1 T. Castella
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 51 I. Mendes
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 80 S. Koné
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 22 T. Cordier
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