Match report →
Servette – Zürich0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Servette
1.73
Total xG
3.14
Zürich
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.40 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Kingstone Mutandwa not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marco Burch not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Bledian Krasniqi not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Servette concede 1 goal per match at home in the league this season, Zürich concede 2.5 per match away
- Attack: Zürich score 2.08 goals per match and concede 2.17 per match in the league this season
Risks
- Squad: K. Mutandwa, M. Burch, M. Stevanović and D. Fofana are out, scoring 8 of Servette's 17 league goals this season (47%)
- Form: Zürich have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, Servette have 3 wins and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
Servette44%
Draw26%
Zürich30%
Double chance
Servette or draw70%
Zürich or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 1.41, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Zürich: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Servette with Thomas Lopes starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (10/13 games, last 30)
- Umeh Emmanuel: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Zürich: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Servette: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Servette 4-2-3-1 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 20 J. Simo
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 36 T. Lopes
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 90 S. Mráz
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 19 Y. Severin
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 35 A. Vincent
- 78 L. Besson
- 39 Eronis Haxhiu
- 4 J. Segura Portocarrero
- 3 S. Hodža
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 43 N. Volken
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 28 M. Greco
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