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Vaduz – Sion0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.91
Total xG
3.72
Sion
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Julian Stark not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Winsley Boteli not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Vaduz scores 2.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Sion scores 2.17 per game away
- Defence: Vaduz concedes 2.08 goals per game in the league this season, Sion concedes 1.83 per game away
Risks
- Table: Sion is 3rd in the league this season with 23 points in 12 games, Vaduz is 10th with 10 points in 12 games
- Form: Vaduz suffered 3 losses in their last 5 games, Sion suffered 1 loss in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz40%
Draw24%
Sion36%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw64%
Sion or draw60%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.91 : 1.81, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Sion with Donat Rrudhani starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (10/10 games, last 30)
- Rilind Nivokazi: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 · Sion 4-2-3-1
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 30 M. Walker
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 28 K. Hajrizi
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 33 R. Nivokazi
Substitutes
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 24 L. Akhalaia
- 37 L. Celentano
- 18 D. Kasper
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 5 N. Sow
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 37 F. Sylla
- 19 F. Surdez
- 24 D. Möschinger
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