Match report →
Thun – Basel3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.59
Total xG
3.10
Basel
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Kazeem Olaigbe on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Xherdan Shaqiri not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Thun have 13 points from 12 league games this season, Basel have 14 points from 12 games
- Goals: Thun scored 2 goals per game in the league this season, Basel scored 1.5 goals per game
- Head-to-head: In the last 5 meetings, Thun have 2 wins and Basel have 3 wins
Risks
- Rest days: Thun with 3 days since their last match
- Home form: Thun scored 0.8 goals per game and conceded 2.8 per game in 5 home league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Thun38%
Draw27%
Basel35%
Double chance
Thun or draw65%
Basel or draw62%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.59 : 1.51, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Basel: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
Lineups
Thun 4-2-2-2 · Basel 4-3-3
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 14 M. Käit
- 16 J. Roth
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 52 A. Ilic
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 29 M. Cisse
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 5 A. Silu
- 18 A. Sow
- 9 Ž. Celar
- 7 P. Otele
Substitutes
- 37 L. Dähler
- 23 M. Bürki
- 33 M. Gutbub
- 25 T. Spycher
- 15 P. Kristal
- 30 N. Maier
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 80 S. Lengen
- 26 N. Christoffersson
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 13 M. Salvi
- 22 C. Michelin
- 44 J. Harder
- 37 G. Koloto
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 25 C. Louis
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →