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St. Gallen – Lugano5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
1.68
Total xG
3.46
Lugano
1.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Aliou Baldé on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dereck Moncada not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hannes Delcroix on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bekhruz Karimov on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: St. Gallen averages 1.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lugano 3.2 per game away
- Shots: St. Gallen averaged 5.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Lugano 6 per game
Risks
- Table: Lugano is 1st in the league this season with 34 points, St. Gallen is 5th with 19 points
- Rest period: Lugano with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen35%
Draw25%
Lugano40%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw60%
Lugano or draw65%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.68 : 1.78, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Lugano: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Lugano: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- St. Gallen: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-1-4-2 · Lugano 3-5-1-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 68 M. Heydari
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 9 A. Hunziker
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 8 A. Grgic
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 26 M. Costa Marques
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 9 A. Ajeti
Substitutes
- 14 A. Balde
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 27 K. Csoboth
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 91 K. Behrens
- 7 E. Alioski
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 11 R. Steffen
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 2 B. Karimov
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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