Super League
Winterthur - Thun
02/25/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.7
2.6
1:2
9%1:3
8%0:3
7%1:4
5%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
13%
Draw
18%
Away Win
69%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
31%
Away or Draw
87%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Gulf in class and form: Unbeaten league leaders Thun (5 consecutive wins) face bottom-of-the-table Winterthur (3 consecutive losses)
- Offensive and defensive superiority: Thun scores almost twice as many goals (avg 2.28 vs 1.16) and has a far more stable defense with 28 goals conceded compared to Winterthur's 72
- Statistical forecast and H2H: The analysis model sees Thun as the clear favorite with a 69% win probability, supported by a dominant H2H record (2 wins, 7-1 goals)
Risk Factors
- Numerous absences for Winterthur: The home team is weakened by several injury-related absences, including P. Kasami
- High-scoring history at the venue: The last 5 home games for Winterthur saw an average of 3.8 goals, with both teams scoring every time, which could suggest an open match
Overview
In a clash of opposites, bottom-of-the-table Winterthur (12th place, 14 points) hosts undisputed leaders Thun (1st place, 58 points)
The Super League match takes place on February 25, 2026, at 7:00 PM at Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese
Thun aims to extend their lead at the top, while Winterthur fights for crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Winterthur's form: W-D-L-L-L
The home team has won only one of their last 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) and has recently suffered three consecutive defeats
Thun's form: W-W-W-W-W
The visitors are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
This winning streak underscores their position as league leaders
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Thun's attack, averaging 2.28 goals per game, is almost twice as strong as Winterthur's (1.16)
Defensively, the picture is even more drastic: Winterthur has the weakest defense in the league with 72 goals conceded (Ă 2.88), while Thun has allowed only 28 goals (Ă 1.12)
Thun is particularly strong away from home, scoring an average of 2.25 goals per game while conceding only 1.08
Winterthur has not kept a single clean sheet this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 2 head-to-head encounters, Thun emerged victorious both times
The goal difference of 7:1 clearly favors the visitors
The last meeting ended in a decisive 4:1 victory for Thun
Key Players
Andrin Hunziker is Winterthur's top scorer with 8 goals this season
Alexandre Jankewitz has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists
Silvan Sidler also has 1 goal and 2 assists to his name
For Thun, Elmin Rastoder is the top scorer with 9 goals and 4 assists
Leonardo Bertone follows with 8 goals and 1 assist
Defender Fabio Fehr shows his attacking qualities with 2 goals and 6 assists
Goalkeepers
Stefanos Kapino has been in goal for all 25 of Winterthur's league games but has yet to keep a clean sheet
Niklas Steffen, for Thun, has helped his team to 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese has recently been a venue for high-scoring games
In the last 5 matches here, there has been an average of 3.8 goals per game
Notably, both teams scored at least one goal in all of these 5 matches