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Super League

St. Gallen - Winterthur

02/28/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
2.7
Total xG
3.5
Winterthur
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

7%
What influences the xG?
SGWIN

St. Gallen

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.52
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.10

Winterthur

Defensive weakness (2.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+1.35
Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.95
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.09
Elias Maluvunu not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.84
+0.84
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

16%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

24%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Winterthur's defensive weakness: The visitors concede an average of 4.3 goals away from home, facing St. Gallen's strong attack (avg 2.0 goals)
  • Vastly different form curves: St. Gallen is unbeaten in 5 games, while Winterthur is on a 4-game losing streak
  • Strong mathematical prediction: The model gives St. Gallen a 76% win probability and expects 2.68 goals from the home team
Risk Factors
  • Winterthur's attack is weakened, with only 69% of their seasonal goal threat available on the pitch
  • Potential fatigue for Winterthur, who have had only 3 days of rest since their last match, compared to St. Gallen's 7 days
  • Although the last result was decisive, the head-to-head record over the last 5 games is balanced
Overview

St. Gallen (2nd place, 47 points) hosts Winterthur (12th place, 14 points) at Kybunpark

Super League match on February 28, 2026, 6:00 PM

A clear clash between a title contender and the bottom-of-the-table team

Form

St. Gallen is in excellent form and unbeaten in the last 5 games

Form: DWDWD (2 wins, 3 draws)

Winterthur is in a deep crisis, having lost their last 4 matches

Form: DLLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen has a strong attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game

Winterthur has the weakest defense in the league with 75 goals conceded in 26 games, especially away (avg 4.3 goals conceded)

Winterthur has not kept a single clean sheet this season

St. Gallen has been involved in matches with over 2.5 goals in 18 of 25 games, while for Winterthur it was 22 of 26

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins each and one draw

The goal difference is narrowly in favor of St. Gallen at 13:11

The last meeting just a few days ago was a clear 5-1 victory for St. Gallen

Key Players

Alessandro Vogt (12 goals, 3 assists) and Carlo Boukhalfa (10 goals, 3 assists) are the top scorers for St. Gallen

Lukas Görtler is the key player in midfield with 8 assists

For Winterthur, Théo Golliard (3 goals, 4 assists) and Randy Schneider (2 goals, 4 assists) are the most important offensive players

Goalkeepers

St. Gallen's Lawrence Ati Zigi has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Winterthur's Stefanos Kapino, on the other hand, is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season

Influences

St. Gallen is very strong at home, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game at Kybunpark

Recent matches at Kybunpark have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game

In 4 of St. Gallen's last 5 home games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

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