Super League
Grasshopper - Lugano
03/01/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.8
1.8
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
10%1:3
6%0:3
6%What influences the xG?
Grasshopper
Lugano
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
20%
Draw
26%
Away Win
54%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
46%
Away or Draw
80%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Clear quality gap: Lugano (3rd) is fighting at the top, while Grasshopper (11th) is in a relegation battle, reflected in the 54% win probability for the visitors
- Contrasting form trends: Lugano is unbeaten in five matches, whereas Grasshopper is waiting for a win for five games
- Defensive vulnerability: Grasshopper's defense is one of the weaker in the league with 1.81 goals conceded per game, facing a potent Lugano attack (1.65 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Lugano's series of draws: Although unbeaten, Lugano has drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating difficulties in closing out games
- Head-to-head record: The last duel between the two teams ended 1-1, and 3 of the last 5 encounters were draws
Overview
Grasshopper (11th place, 21 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 46 points) at Stadion Letzigrund
Super League match on March 1, 2026, 4:30 PM
The hosts are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Lugano aims to solidify their position at the top
The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with a 54% win probability
Form
Grasshopper form: DDLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team is winless in 5 matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses
Their last game was a 1-2 home defeat against Zürich
Lugano form: DDDDW
The visitors are unbeaten in their last 5 games, but recorded 4 draws and 1 win
Their most recent outing was a 2-1 home victory over Lausanne Sport
Statistics
Offensively, Lugano is stronger with an average of 1.65 goals per game compared to Grasshopper's 1.31
A similar picture emerges defensively: Lugano concedes 1.19 goals per game, while Grasshopper concedes 1.81
Lugano is particularly dangerous away from home (1.7 goals per game), but also vulnerable (1.7 goals conceded per game)
For both teams, 17 games this season have seen both teams score
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Grasshopper has failed to win
Lugano won 2 times, while 3 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is slightly in favor of Lugano with 7:5
The last meeting in January 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
For Grasshopper, Jonathan Asp Jensen (7 goals, 5 assists) and Luke Plange (8 goals, 3 assists) are the key figures in attack
For Lugano, striker Kevin Behrens (10 goals, 1 assist) and midfielders Anto Grgic (6 goals, 5 assists) and Daniel Dos Santos (3 goals, 9 assists) are crucial
Goalkeepers
Justin Hammel is in goal for Grasshopper
This season, his team has kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches
For Lugano, Amir Saipi is the goalkeeper
His team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times in 26 games
Influences
Stadion Letzigrund has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 4 of these 5 games, both teams scored
Grasshopper has a negative record at home with 1.27 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game
Lugano is strong offensively away from home (1.7 goals/game), but also defensively vulnerable (1.7 goals conceded/game)