🇸🇦

Pro League

Al Shabab - Al-Qadsiah

08/13/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Al Shabab
1.3
Total xG
3.7
Al-Qadsiah
2.4
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

0:3

6%

2:1

5%
What influences the xG?
ASAL-

Al Shabab

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Abderrazak Hamdallah not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Saad Balobaid not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Ali Al-Azaizeh not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ali bin Hadi bin Mohammed Al Bulayhi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Al-Qadsiah

Attack strength (1.68x league average)
+1.23
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.32
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Nahitan Nández on the bench (8 goals, 10 assists)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.51
+0.51
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al-Qadsiah: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Al-Qadsiah with Julian Weigl: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Al Shabab: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Al-Qadsiah: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

21%

Away Win

60%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

40%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Away attacking power: Al-Qadsiah score 2.44 goals per match on average and pose a huge threat with Julián Quiñones scoring 33 goals this season
  • Mathematical prediction: The analytical model calculates a 60% probability for an away win with 2.36 expected goals for Al-Qadsiah
  • Tactical possession dominance: Al-Qadsiah averaged a dominant 63.6% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Al Shabab concede 1.64 goals per home game on average
  • Squad disadvantage: The home side must cope without Abderrazak Hamdallah, leaving them with only 81% of their usual starting strength available
Overview

Al Shabab host Al-Qadsiah at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Riyadh

Pro League match on August 13, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams start the season level on points

The visitors enter the match as favorites according to mathematical models

Form

Al Shabab with the form sequence LDWDD in their recent matches

The home side recorded one win and three draws lately

Al-Qadsiah show a form sequence of WLDDW

The visitors won two of their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Shabab average 1.29 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Al-Qadsiah average a strong 2.44 goals scored per game

The away team conceded only 1.00 goals per match on average

Both teams scored in 21 out of 34 matches for Al Shabab

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct duels in history

Al-Qadsiah recorded 2 wins, while Al Shabab secured 1 victory

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on April 14, 2026

Key Players

Yannick Carrasco leads Al Shabab with 18 goals and 8 assists

Josh Brownhill contributed 5 goals in midfield

Julián Quiñones is the top scorer for Al-Qadsiah with 33 goals in 31 games

Mateo Retegui scored 16 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Mohammed Al-Mahasneh guards the home team's goal with 0 season appearances

Ahmed Al-Kassar made 3 appearances for the visitors this season

Influences

The Al-Shabab Club Stadium averaged 4.2 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at this venue

Al Shabab's home advantage with 1.27 average goals scored could play a role

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.