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Pro League

Al Ettifaq - Al Riyadh

08/14/2026, 06:00 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Al Ettifaq
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Al Riyadh
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AEAR

Al Ettifaq

Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+1.11
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.82
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Georginio Wijnaldum not in squad (16 goals, 6 assists)
Khalid Al-Ghannam on the bench (13 goals, 6 assists)
Francisco Calvo not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
JoĂŁo Costa not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
71% of goal output missing (only 37% available)

Al Riyadh

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-2.11
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 3 league avg)
-1.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (1.8 vs 1 season average)
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.12
Tozé not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Yoann Barbet not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

League

High-scoring league (4 goals/match)
+1.50
+1.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Ettifaq with Francisco Calvo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Al Riyadh with Enes Sali: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Massive quality loss for Al Ettifaq: Only 38% of goal threat is available as key players such as Georginio Wijnaldum and Khalid Al-Ghannam are missing
  • Trend advantage for Al Riyadh: The visitors are scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.03), while Al Ettifaq's goal production recently slowed to 1.2
  • Tactical threat: Al Riyadh averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, showing strong offensive quality
Risk Factors
  • Defensive weakness on the road: Al Riyadh concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
  • Weakened visitors squad: Al Riyadh are missing TozĂ© and Yoann Barbet, leaving only 48% of their goal threat available
  • Inexperienced goalkeeper: Al Ettifaq start with Turki Ba Al-Jawsh in goal, who has played zero minutes of match action this season
Overview

Al Ettifaq host Al Riyadh at the EGO STADIUM

Pro League match on August 14, 2026, 6:00 PM

Both teams look for their first points at the start of the season

Al Ettifaq are favored by the mathematical model with a 47% win probability

Form

Form of Al Ettifaq: LWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last games

Form of Al Riyadh: WDWLW

The visitors showed better form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Statistics

Al Ettifaq scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.62 goals per match

At home, their average stands at 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded

Al Riyadh scored a season average of 1.03 goals and conceded 1.85 goals

On the road, the visitors show massive defensive issues with 2.35 goals conceded per match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

Al Ettifaq lead with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Al Riyadh and 1 draw

The last match on April 9, 2026, ended in a 3-2 away victory for Al Riyadh

Key Players

Moussa Dembélé has scored 9 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Álvaro Medrån contributed 1 goal and 8 assists in his 29 appearances

Leandro Antunes is the main offensive threat for the visitors with 7 goals in 15 appearances

Goalkeepers

Turki Ba Al-Jawsh is set to make his first appearance of the season for Al Ettifaq

Milan Borjan played all 34 matches for Al Riyadh and kept 4 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at EGO STADIUM

The venue history indicates high-scoring matches with an average of 3.8 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored and both teams found the net in 80% of historical matches at this venue

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