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Pro League

Al Nassr - Al Fateh

08/15/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Nassr
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Al Fateh
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ANAF

Al Nassr

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 2.3 league avg)
-1.60
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Cristiano Ronaldo on the bench (28 goals, 2 assists)
Marcelo Brozović not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Abdulelah Al-Amri on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ayman Yahya on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Al Fateh

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-1.64
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Sofiane Bendebka not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Wesley Delgado not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jorge Fernandes not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

High-scoring league (4.3 goals/match)
+1.83
+1.83
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Nassr: 8 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Nassr: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 3
    Al Fateh with Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Al Fateh: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Al Fateh: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Al Nassr averaged 9.6 shots on target with 60.4% possession in recent matches
  • Home strength: Al Nassr impressed last season with an average of 2.71 home goals scored and only 0.71 conceded per match
  • Offensive struggles: Al Fateh's goal production has stalled recently at 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Away defense concerns: Al Fateh concede a high average of 2.23 goals per away match
  • Low attacking threat: Al Fateh averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

Al Nassr (9th place, 0 points) host Al Fateh (10th place, 0 points) at the Al-Awwal Park

Pro League matchday 1 on August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM

Season opener for both teams

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 60%

Form

Al Nassr with perfect form from the end of last season: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side recorded 5 consecutive wins

Al Fateh with inconsistent recent form: LLLWD

The visitors registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last games

Statistics

Al Nassr averaged 2.68 goals scored per game last season

The home team conceded an average of 0.82 goals

Al Fateh averaged 1.21 goals scored per game

The visitors conceded an average of 1.62 goals per match

Al Nassr kept 17 clean sheets last season

Al Fateh achieved 7 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

Al Nassr dominate with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Al Fateh

The last meeting ended on February 14, 2026, with a 2:0 victory for Al Nassr

Goal difference of 12:5 in favor of Al Nassr

Key Players

JoĂŁo FĂ©lix with 20 goals and 13 assists last season

Kingsley Coman scored 10 goals and provided 11 assists

Sadio Mané contributed 10 goals and 6 assists

Mourad Batna is Al Fateh's most dangerous attacker with 9 goals and 8 assists

Zaydou Youssouf in midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists

Saeed Baattia in defense with 1 goal last season

Not in the squad for Al Nassr: Cristiano Ronaldo (28 goals, 2 assists), Marcelo Brozović (0 goals, 5 assists), Abdulelah Al-Amri, and Ayman Yahya

Not in the squad for Al Fateh: Sofiane Bendebka (9 goals, 1 assist), Wesley Delgado (2 goals, 3 assists), and Jorge Fernandes

Goalkeepers

Bento played in goal for Al Nassr last season, averaging a rating of 6.84

Al Nassr kept a total of 17 clean sheets last season

Walid Al-Enezi is in goal for Al Fateh

Al Fateh achieved a total of 7 clean sheets last season

Influences

Home advantage at Al-Awwal Park on natural grass pitch

Al-Awwal Park averaged 3.4 goals per match in recent games

Al Nassr scored an average of 2.71 goals and conceded 0.71 goals at home last season

Al Fateh conceded an average of 2.23 goals away from home

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