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Pro League

Al Riyadh - Al Nassr

08/21/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Al Riyadh
0.8
Total xG
3.0
Al Nassr
2.2
Most Likely Scores

0:2

12%

1:1

10%

1:2

10%

0:3

9%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
ARAN

Al Riyadh

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)
-0.13
Tozé not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Yoann Barbet not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 49% available)

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+0.91
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.72
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.07
Cristiano Ronaldo on the bench (28 goals, 2 assists)
Marcelo Brozović not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Mohamed Simakan on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Nassr: 8 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Nassr: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 3
    Al Riyadh with Sultan Harun: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Al Nassr with Sultan Al-Ghannam: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

10%

Draw

20%

Away Win

70%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

30%

Away or Draw

90%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Squad depletion for Al Riyadh: Only 49% of the regular starting lineup strength is available, as TozĂ© and Yoann Barbet are missing
  • Tactical dominance: Al Nassr controlled recent matches with an average of 61.2% possession and 8.4 shots on target, compared to Al Riyadh's counter-oriented 44.6% possession
  • Offensive power: Al Nassr scores consistently at around 2.9 goals per match, meeting the hosts' vulnerable defense
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for Al Nassr: Cristiano Ronaldo, Marcelo Brozović, and Mohamed Simakan are not in the starting lineup
  • Short recovery time: Al Nassr enters the match with only 6 days of rest since their last game
  • Limited data availability regarding duel statistics in recent matches
Overview

Al Riyadh (15th place, 0 points) host Al Nassr (2nd place, 3 points) at the Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Pro League match on August 21, 2026, 6:00 PM

Clear favorite role for the away team

Form

Al Riyadh with form DWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recent match ended in a 2-4 defeat against Al Ettifaq

Al Nassr enters with a perfect run of five consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Their last game was won 3-0 against Al Fateh

Statistics

Al Riyadh scored 35 goals (Avg. 1.03) and conceded 63 goals (Avg. 1.85) this season

At home, their average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Al Nassr shines with 91 goals scored (Avg. 2.68) and only 28 goals conceded (Avg. 0.82)

On the road, the visitors average 2.65 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches in history

Al Nassr won all four matches, Al Riyadh is still waiting for their first success

The goal difference stands at 2-9 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting ended 1-0 for Al Nassr on February 2, 2026

Key Players

Teddy Okou recorded one goal and eight assists in 32 appearances with a 6.9 rating

Leandro Antunes has seven goals in 15 matches with a 7.24 rating

Sadio Mané contributed ten goals and six assists in 25 appearances

Kingsley Coman has ten goals and eleven assists in 30 games

JoĂŁo FĂ©lix stands out with 20 goals and 13 assists with a 7.85 rating

Milan Borjan appeared in 34 matches with a 6.81 rating

Goalkeepers

Milan Borjan played 34 games for Al Riyadh and kept four clean sheets

Bento appeared 21 times for Al Nassr, while the team recorded 17 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.2 goals per match with only one out of five matches seeing both teams score

Al Riyadh has a home goal difference of 17-23

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