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Pro League

Al-Qadsiah - Al Ittihad

08/21/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Al-Qadsiah
2.1
Total xG
3.1
Al Ittihad
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
AL-AI

Al-Qadsiah

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.77
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Nahitan NƔndez not in squad (8 goals, 10 assists)

Al Ittihad

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.70
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Moussa Diaby on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
Muhannad Shanqeeti on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Fabinho not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Danilo Pereira not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Faisal Al-Ghamdi not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 59% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Ittihad: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Al Ittihad: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Al Ittihad with Fabinho: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Al-Qadsiah with Julian Weigl: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Al Ittihad: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Strong mathematical prediction: The model calculates a home win probability of 62% and expects 2.10 home goals
  • Dominant style of play: Al-Qadsiah recently averaged 61.8% possession and 6.4 shots on target per match
  • Historical advantage: In the last head-to-head encounter, Al-Qadsiah dominated Al Ittihad with a clear 5-1 victory
Risk Factors
  • Severe squad depletion: Moussa Diaby, Muhannad Shanqeeti, Fabinho, Danilo Pereira and Faisal Al-Ghamdi are missing, leaving only 59% of the usual starting XI strength available
  • Goalkeeper absence: First-choice keeper K. Casteels is injured, forcing Ahmed Al-Kassar to start with only 3 season appearances
Overview

Al-Qadsiah host Al Ittihad at the EGO STADIUM

Pro League match on August 21, 2026, 8:00 PM

Al-Qadsiah currently sit in 4th place with 3 points

Al Ittihad are in 8th place with 1 point

The hosts enter this match as favorites after an opening win

Form

Al-Qadsiah form: LDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts achieved 2 wins and 2 draws with 1 loss

They are currently on a two-game winning streak

Al Ittihad form: LWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Al Ittihad's recent trend is rated as negative

Statistics

Al-Qadsiah score an average of 2.44 goals per game while conceding 1.0

In home games, they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.81 conceded

Al Ittihad score an average of 1.62 goals and concede 1.41

Away from home, the visitors average 1.65 goals and 1.35 goals conceded

Al-Qadsiah kept a clean sheet 10 times this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Al-Qadsiah won 2 times, Al Ittihad won 1 time with 1 draw

The goal difference is 9:6 in favor of Al-Qadsiah

The last encounter ended in a clear 5-1 victory for Al-Qadsiah

This makes the home team dominant in recent history

Key Players

JuliƔn QuiƱones scored 33 goals and provided 4 assists in 31 matches

Musab Al-Juwayr has 6 goals and 11 assists from 31 encounters

Mateo Retegui contributed 16 goals and 1 assist in 28 games

Youssef En-Nesyri recently scored 5 goals in 5 games with a 7.33 rating

Houssem Aouar has 8 goals and 4 assists this season

Steven Bergwijn contributed 5 goals and 3 assists in 21 matches

Goalkeepers

Ahmed Al-Kassar appeared in goal 3 times this season and shows a stable form trend

Predrag Rajković made 30 appearances with a rating of 6.84 but shows a declining form trend

Influences

Home advantage supports Al-Qadsiah through an average of 2.5 goals scored per home game

At EGO STADIUM, 5 games averaged 4.0 goals with an Over 2.5 rate of 80%

The match will be played on natural grass

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