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Pro League

Al-Fayha - Al Hilal

08/20/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Al-Fayha
0.7
Total xG
3.1
Al Hilal
2.4
Most Likely Scores

0:2

13%

0:3

10%

1:2

9%

1:1

9%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
AL-AH

Al-Fayha

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-1.47
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.06
Jason not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Y. Benzia not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Sabri Dahal not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Silvere Ganvoula on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Chris Smalling not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 54% available)

Al Hilal

Attack strength (2.17x league average)
+1.61
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.03
Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists)
Salem Al-Dawsari not in squad (8 goals, 8 assists)
Theo HernƔndez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 73% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hilal: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Al-Fayha with Fashion Sakala: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Al Hilal with Murad Al-Hawsawi: 3.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

9%

Draw

18%

Away Win

73%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

27%

Away or Draw

91%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact crisis: Only 54% of Al-Fayha's attacking threat available without key players like Jason and Y. Benzia
  • Tactical dominance: Al Hilal averaged 6.6 shots on target and 57.4% possession in recent matches
  • Statistical advantage: Mathematical analysis predicts a clear away win for Al Hilal with a high probability of 73%
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive threat: Al-Fayha averaged only 3 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Roster limitations for Al Hilal: Missing Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira and Salem Al-Dawsari reduces elite attacking options
  • Severe form slump: Al-Fayha lost 4 of their last 5 matches and are in a difficult run of results
Overview

Al-Fayha (12th place, 0 points) host Al Hilal (3rd place, 3 points) at the Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Pro League match on August 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

Defending champions Al Hilal enter the match as clear favorites

Al-Fayha aim to recover from their opening defeat and secure crucial points

Form

Al-Fayha are struggling with a form curve of LDLLL

The home side managed only one draw and suffered four losses in their last five matches

Al Hilal are in excellent shape with a form curve of WWDWW

The visitors remain unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al-Fayha score 1.21 goals and concede 1.59 goals on average per match

At home, Al-Fayha are more stable, scoring 1.22 and conceding 1.11 goals on average

Al Hilal present an elite offense with an average of 2.5 goals scored per game

The away side concedes just 0.89 goals per match on average on their travels

Head-to-Head

Al Hilal dominated the head-to-head history with 4 wins in 4 matches

The overall goal record stands at 10 to 1 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on May 21, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away win for Al Hilal

Key Players

Fashion Sakala leads Al-Fayha's attack with 13 season goals and 5 assists

Alfa Semedo controls the midfield with 4 goals and 3 assists

Mohammed Al-Baqawi anchors the defense with an average rating of 6.66

RĆŗben Neves orchestrates Al Hilal's play with 11 goals and 7 assists

Karim Benzema contributes highly with 9 goals and 2 assists in just 10 matches

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic shines with 8 goals and 7 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Orlando Mosquera achieved 7 clean sheets in 32 matches for Al-Fayha

Yassine Bounou kept 16 clean sheets in 26 appearances for Al Hilal

Influences

The historical goal average at the Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium is 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of Al-Fayha's home matches

Al-Fayha benefit from home advantage, conceding only 1.11 goals per game in front of their fans

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