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Pro League

Al Hilal - Al Ahli

09/01/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Hilal
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Al Ahli
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AHAA

Al Hilal

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.61x league average)
-0.06
Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists)
Mohamed Kanno on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Moteb Al-Harbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Al Ahli

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.72
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Franck KessiƩ not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Rayan Hamed on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 3
    Al Hilal: 34% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (12 of 35)

  • 4
    Al Ahli: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Attacking advantage: Al Hilal recently averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target per match
  • Not selected for Al Ahli: Key regular players Riyad Mahrez, Franck KessiĆ©, Firas Al-Buraikan, and Rayan Hamed are missing from the squad
  • Mathematical tendency: The predictive model estimates a home win with a 47% probability
Risk Factors
  • Reduced offensive threat for Al Hilal: Only 64% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira, Mohamed Kanno, and Moteb Al-Harbi missing
  • Shorter recovery time: Al Ahli enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Low visiting goal threat: Al Ahli recently averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match
Overview

Al Hilal (2nd place, 9 points) host Al Ahli (7th place, 6 points) at the Kingdom Arena

Pro League match on September 1, 2026, 7:00 PM

The hosts aim to extend their perfect record of three consecutive wins

Al Ahli sit just three points behind, looking to close the gap to the top

Form

Al Hilal are in strong form with a DWWWW sequence

The hosts recently secured four consecutive wins, including a decisive 5-1 victory against Al Khaleej

Al Ahli display inconsistent form with a WLWDL run

The visitors recently suffered a 1-3 defeat against Al Kholood

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Hilal average 2.5 goals scored per game this season

Their home average stands at a strong 2.56 goals scored while conceding just 0.69 goals per game

Al Ahli average 2.17 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per away game

The Kingdom Arena sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game in recent matches

According to advanced stats, Al Hilal are currently scoring more frequently at 3.4 than their season average of 2.8

Head-to-Head

Even historical record in 4 head-to-head matches with one win each and two draws

The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 7:7 goals

The last meeting on February 2, 2026 ended in a scoreless 0:0 draw

Neither side has shown clear dominance in recent encounters

Key Players

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic shines in midfield with 8 season goals and a rising form trend

RĆŗben Neves controls the midfield with 11 season goals and 7 assists

Sultan Mandash has already contributed 4 goals in 15 appearances

For Al Ahli, Ivan Toney is the most dangerous attacker with an outstanding 32 season goals

Galeno impresses as a playmaker with 7 assists already this season

Valentin Atangana strengthens the midfield with 5 season goals

Goalkeepers

Yassine Bounou has played 26 matches in goal, showing rising form with a recent 7.16 rating

Edouard Mendy also completed 26 matches with an average rating of 6.87

This season, Al Hilal recorded 16 clean sheets, while Al Ahli achieved 17

Influences

The home advantage is reflected in Al Hilal's strong average of 2.56 home goals scored

The match will be played on natural grass at the Kingdom Arena

In the home stadium, recent games averaged 3.4 total goals per match

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