Match report →
Al Hilal – Al Ahli3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Hilal
1.35
Total xG
2.19
Al Ahli
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hilal | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Mohamed Kanno on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Moteb Al-Harbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Franck Kessié not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rayan Hamed on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attacking advantage: Al Hilal recently averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target per match
- Not selected for Al Ahli: Key regular players Riyad Mahrez, Franck Kessié, Firas Al-Buraikan, and Rayan Hamed are missing from the squad
- Mathematical tendency: The predictive model estimates a home win with a 47% probability
Risks
- Reduced offensive threat for Al Hilal: Only 64% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira, Mohamed Kanno, and Moteb Al-Harbi missing
- Shorter recovery time: Al Ahli enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Low visiting goal threat: Al Ahli recently averaged only 3.8 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Hilal47%
Draw31%
Al Ahli22%
Double chance
Al Hilal or draw78%
Al Ahli or draw53%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Al Hilal: 34% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (12 of 35)
- Al Ahli: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Hilal 4-2-3-1 · Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 78 A. Lajami
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. Hernández
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 27 S. Madash
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 38 C. Summerville
- 75 M. Meïté
Al Ahli
- 16 E. Mendy
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 28 M. Demiral
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
Substitutes
- 11 O. Watkins
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 28 M. Kanno
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 72 S. Dahal
- 55 M. Al Dawood
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 21 A. Radif
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 47 W. Saleh
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 66 N. Masoud
- 29 M. Yousef
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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