Match report â
Al Ettifaq â Al Nassr2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Ettifaq
0.71
Total xG
3.14
Al Nassr
2.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ettifaq | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +1.11 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | â0.88 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | â0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | â0.00 | |
| Georginio Wijnaldum not in squad (16 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Khalid Al-Ghannam on the bench (13 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Mohamed Simakan not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact: Al Ettifaq is missing Georginio Wijnaldum and Khalid Al-Ghannam, leaving only 47% of their usual goal threat available
- Tactical dominance: Al Nassr recently averaged 7.4 shots on target with 60% possession, demonstrating immense offensive pressure
- Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 74% win probability for the visitors and expects 2.43 goals from Al Nassr
Risks
- Short recovery: Al Ettifaq enters this demanding fixture with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Vulnerable defense: Al Ettifaq conceded an average of 1.62 goals per match last season
All probabilities
Result
Al Ettifaq8%
Draw18%
Al Nassr74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Al Ettifaq or draw26%
Al Nassr or draw92%
No draw82%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
0:2
13%
0:3
10%
1:2
9%
1:1
8%
1:3
7%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Al Nassr: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Ettifaq with Moussa Dembélé starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/8 games, last 26)
Lineups
Al Ettifaq 4-1-4-1 · Al Nassr 4-4-1-1
Al Ettifaq
- 92 T. Baljoush
- 61 R. Al Otaibi
- 4 J. Hendry
- 70 A. Khateeb
- 33 M. Alolayan
- 11 O. Duda
- 80 R. Messi Tanfouri
- 10 Ă. MedrĂĄn Just
- 58 Y. Al Shammari
- 71 M. GluĆĄÄeviÄ
- 9 M. Dembélé
Al Nassr
- 24 B. Krepski
- 12 N. Boushal
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 26 Ă. MartĂnez Berridi
- 83 S. Al Najdi
- 21 K. Coman
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 11 S. Costa
- 10 S. Mané
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Substitutes
- 17 J. Larsson
- 43 B. Celina
- 3 A. Madu
- 6 F. Al Ghamdi
- 13 M. Alaeli
- 7 K. Al Ghannam
- 87 M. Ali
- 22 A. Hawsawy
- 29 Z. Al Ghamdi
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 4 N. Al Sharari
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 19 A. Al Hassan
- 23 A. Yahya
- 60 S. Haqawi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 14 S. Al Naji
- 53 A. Al Otaibi
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