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Pro League

Al Ettifaq - Al Nassr

08/25/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Al Ettifaq
0.7
Total xG
3.1
Al Nassr
2.4
Most Likely Scores

0:2

13%

0:3

10%

1:2

9%

1:1

8%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
AEAN

Al Ettifaq

Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Georginio Wijnaldum not in squad (16 goals, 6 assists)
Khalid Al-Ghannam on the bench (13 goals, 6 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+1.11
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.88
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
-0.00
Mohamed Simakan not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Nassr: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 3
    Al Ettifaq with Moussa Dembélé starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/8 games, last 26)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

8%

Draw

18%

Away Win

74%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

26%

Away or Draw

92%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact: Al Ettifaq is missing Georginio Wijnaldum and Khalid Al-Ghannam, leaving only 47% of their usual goal threat available
  • Tactical dominance: Al Nassr recently averaged 7.4 shots on target with 60% possession, demonstrating immense offensive pressure
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 74% win probability for the visitors and expects 2.43 goals from Al Nassr
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery: Al Ettifaq enters this demanding fixture with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Vulnerable defense: Al Ettifaq conceded an average of 1.62 goals per match last season
Overview

Al Ettifaq hosts Al Nassr on August 25, 2026, at 6:00 PM

A Pro League clash between the 6th and 2nd placed teams

Both sides started the season perfectly with two wins

Al Nassr is calculated as the clear favorite for this matchup

Form

Al Ettifaq shows an upward trend with two consecutive wins recently

Their overall record over the last five matches stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Al Nassr arrives with a perfect streak of 5 consecutive wins

The visitors' form curve is exceptionally strong and stable

Statistics

Al Ettifaq averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per match last season

In home games, they scored 1.53 goals and conceded 1.53 on average

Al Nassr excelled with an average of 2.68 goals scored while conceding only 0.82

Away from home, Al Nassr maintained a strong record, averaging 2.65 goals scored and 0.94 conceded

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Al Ettifaq won 1, Al Nassr won 2, and 1 ended in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 5 to 8 from Al Ettifaq's perspective

The last encounter on April 15, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Al Nassr

Al Nassr has emerged as the dominant side in recent direct matchups

Key Players

Moussa Dembélé has recorded 9 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.99

Álvaro Medrån shines with 8 assists and a strong rating of 7.20

Cristiano Ronaldo leads the visitors with 28 seasonal goals

JoĂŁo FĂ©lix contributed an impressive 20 goals and 13 assists with a 7.85 rating

Kingsley Coman boosts the attack with 10 goals and 11 assists

Goalkeepers

Turki Ba Al-Jawsh guards the net for Al Ettifaq with an average rating of 6.95

His team secured a total of 9 clean sheets last season

Bento starts for Al Nassr, maintaining an average rating of 6.90

The defense ahead of Bento helped Al Nassr record an impressive 17 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the EGO STADIUM

This venue has recently averaged 3.2 total goals per match

The stadium statistics show a high-scoring trend with both Over 2.5 and BTTS occurring in 3 out of 5 games

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