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Pro League

Al Taawoun - Al-Fayha

08/25/2026, 04:10 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Taawoun
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Al-Fayha
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
ATAL-

Al Taawoun

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.61
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.18
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.15
Roger MartĆ­nez not in squad (23 goals, 2 assists)
Angelo Fulgini not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists)
Mohammed Mahzari not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
FlƔvio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
72% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

Al-Fayha

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.76
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.24
Jason not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Y. Benzia not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Chris Smalling not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al-Fayha with Fashion Sakala: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Al Taawoun: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Al Taawoun with Qasem Lajami: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Al Taawoun: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for Al Taawoun: Only 40% of their goal-scoring threat is active with Roger MartĆ­nez, Angelo Fulgini, Mohammed Mahzari, and FlĆ”vio missing
  • Tactical control: Al Taawoun recently averaged 57% possession and 4.0 shots on target per match
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 49% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Weakened visitor squad: Al-Fayha have only 57% of their goal-scoring threat available without Jason, Y. Benzia, and Chris Smalling
  • Fatigue factor: Al Taawoun have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive woes on the road: Al-Fayha concede an average of 2.12 goals in away matches
Overview

Al Taawoun (12th place, 1 point) host Al-Fayha (15th place, 0 points) at the King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Pro League match on August 25, 2026, 6:10 PM

Both teams are searching for their first win of the season

Form

Al Taawoun enter with a form of LWLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Al-Fayha travel with a form of DLLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Both sides suffered a defeat in their most recent league match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Taawoun scored an average of 1.74 goals and conceded 1.35 goals this season

Al-Fayha scored an average of 1.21 goals and conceded 1.59 goals

Al-Fayha are highly vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.12 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Al Taawoun won 2 times, Al-Fayha won 1 time, with 1 draw

The last encounter on February 20, 2026, ended 2-3 in favor of Al-Fayha

Key Players

Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi has recorded 4 goals and 7 assists this season

Marin Petkov contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Aschraf El Mahdioui shows rising form with a 7.18 rating in the last 5 games

For the visitors, Fashion Sakala leads the attack with 13 season goals

Alfa Semedo has registered 4 goals and 3 assists

Nawaf Al-Harthi is on a rising trend of 0.35 in recent matches

Goalkeepers

Mailson is in goal for Al Taawoun, securing 6 clean sheets this season

Orlando Mosquera guards the net for Al-Fayha, recording 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Venue history shows an average of 2.0 goals per game

Al Taawoun face a schedule disadvantage with only 3 rest days compared to Al-Fayha's 5

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