Match report →
Al Taawoun – Al-Fayha0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Taawoun
1.60
Total xG
2.62
Al-Fayha
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Taawoun | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.76 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.61 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Roger Martínez not in squad (23 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Angelo Fulgini not in squad (5 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Mohammed Mahzari not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Flávio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 72% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| Jason not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Y. Benzia not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Chris Smalling not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 56% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact for Al Taawoun: Only 40% of their goal-scoring threat is active with Roger Martínez, Angelo Fulgini, Mohammed Mahzari, and Flávio missing
- Tactical control: Al Taawoun recently averaged 57% possession and 4.0 shots on target per match
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 49% home win probability
Risks
- Weakened visitor squad: Al-Fayha have only 57% of their goal-scoring threat available without Jason, Y. Benzia, and Chris Smalling
- Fatigue factor: Al Taawoun have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive woes on the road: Al-Fayha concede an average of 2.12 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Taawoun49%
Draw28%
Al-Fayha23%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Al Taawoun or draw77%
Al-Fayha or draw51%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al-Fayha with Fashion Sakala: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Al Taawoun: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Al Taawoun with Qasem Lajami: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Al Taawoun: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Al Taawoun 4-1-4-1 · Al-Fayha 4-4-1-1
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 19 O. Dorley
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 10 J. Sakala
Substitutes
- 11 F. Al Rashidi
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 14 S. Rashad Mohamed
- 11 Z. Belaïd
- 70 A. Hendi
- 20 B. Al-Arini
- 27 A. Al Hassan
- 39 A. Al Ghamdi
- 12 T. Al Jaadi
- 35 S. Ganvoula M'boussy
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 20 A. Al Qahtani
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 47 M. Al Dowaish
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