Match report ā
Al Ittihad ā Al Hazm3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Ittihad
1.77
Total xG
2.88
Al Hazm
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ittihad | Al Hazm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.88 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | ā0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.04 | |
| Moussa Diaby not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Muhannad Shanqeeti not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Faisal Al-Ghamdi not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| FƔbio Martins not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Omar Al-Somah not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nawaf Al-Habashi not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Elias Mokwana not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| L. Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 50% of goal threat available, without FƔbio Martins, Omar Al-Somah, Nawaf Al-Habashi, Elias Mokwana and L. Rosier
- Tactical trend: Al Hazm averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a home win probability of 52%
Risks
- Al Ittihad with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive trend: Al Ittihad conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Ittihad52%
Draw26%
Al Hazm22%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Al Ittihad or draw78%
Al Hazm or draw48%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ittihad: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Al Hazm with Abdurahman Al-Dakheel: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Al Ittihad with Steven Bergwijn: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Al Hazm: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Al Ittihad: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1 Ā· Al Hazm 4-1-4-1
Al Ittihad
- 1 P. RajkoviÄ
- 4 J. Simic
- 3 S. Keller
- 2 D. HĆ©lio Pereira
- 25 F. Abdi
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 8 M. Ali
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
Al Hazm
- 23 I. Zaied
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 24 A. Bah
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 9 A. Pululu
Substitutes
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 42 M. Muath
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 32 A. Al Julaydan
- 15 H. Kadesh
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 29 F. Al Shamrani
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 33 M. Al Ghamdi
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 12 F. Al-Aazmi
- 29 A. Diakite
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
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