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Pro League

Al Shabab - Al Riyadh

08/25/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Al Shabab
2.1
Total xG
3.7
Al Riyadh
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ASAR

Al Shabab

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+1.45
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Abderrazak Hamdallah not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Saad Balobaid not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Ali Al-Azaizeh not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ali bin Hadi bin Mohammed Al Bulayhi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Al Riyadh

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average)
+0.11
TozƩ not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists)
Yoann Barbet not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Shabab: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Al Shabab: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

23%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Al Riyadh must play without TozĆ© and Yoann Barbet, leaving only 58% of their usual goal threat available
  • Offensive pressure: Al Shabab averaged 5.8 shots on target and 16.2 total shots in recent matches
  • High-scoring model: Mathematical analysis predicts a high BTTS probability of 72% with 2.13 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Increased fatigue: Al Shabab enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive instability: Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
  • Squad limitations: Al Shabab is missing four key players, including Abderrazak Hamdallah and Saad Balobaid
Overview

Al Shabab (13th place, 1 point) host Al Riyadh (18th place, 0 points) at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Pro League match on August 25, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are searching for their first win of the season

Form

Al Shabab with form WDDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss across all competitions)

Most recent result was a 0-0 away draw against Al Khaleej

Al Riyadh travel with form WLWLL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

They suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-4 against Al Nassr

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Shabab scores an average of 1.29 goals per game while conceding 1.68

At home, Al Shabab averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded

Al Riyadh scores an average of 1.03 goals and conceded 1.85

Al Riyadh is particularly vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.35 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Total of 4 head-to-head matches in the database

Al Shabab dominates with 3 wins, while Al Riyadh has 0 wins and 1 draw

The last encounter on April 5, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Goal difference stands at 9-4 in favor of Al Shabab

Key Players

Yannick Carrasco is the top offensive player with 18 goals and 8 assists in 29 appearances

Josh Brownhill contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 30 games

Yacine Adli has recorded 1 goal and 3 assists in 26 appearances

For the visitors, Leandro Antunes stands out with 7 goals in 15 matches

Teddy Okou contributed 1 goal and 8 assists in 32 matches this season

Victor Lekhal has recorded 1 assist in 15 appearances

Goalkeepers

Mohammed Al-Mahasneh played in 2 out of 5 games with a personal rating of 6.40

Milan Borjan made 34 seasonal appearances with an average rating of 6.81

Al Shabab secured 7 clean sheets this season, while Al Riyadh recorded 4 clean sheets

Influences

The Al-Shabab Club Stadium historically offers high-scoring matches

An average of 4.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 home games

Both teams scored in 100% of these matches, with over 2.5 goals occurring in 80% of them

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