Match report →
Al Shabab – Al Riyadh3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Al Shabab
2.13
Total xG
3.74
Al Riyadh
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Shabab | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +1.45 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Abderrazak Hamdallah not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Saad Balobaid not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ali Al-Azaizeh not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ali bin Hadi bin Mohammed Al Bulayhi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Tozé not in squad (9 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Yoann Barbet not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Al Riyadh must play without Tozé and Yoann Barbet, leaving only 58% of their usual goal threat available
- Offensive pressure: Al Shabab averaged 5.8 shots on target and 16.2 total shots in recent matches
- High-scoring model: Mathematical analysis predicts a high BTTS probability of 72% with 2.13 expected home goals
Risks
- Increased fatigue: Al Shabab enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive instability: Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
- Squad limitations: Al Shabab is missing four key players, including Abderrazak Hamdallah and Saad Balobaid
All probabilities
Result
Al Shabab49%
Draw23%
Al Riyadh28%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Double chance
Al Shabab or draw72%
Al Riyadh or draw51%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Shabab: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 12 games)
- Al Shabab: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
Lineups
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al Riyadh 4-1-4-1
Al Shabab
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 18 T. Partey
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 6 A. Keita
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 43 B. Mensah
- 77 L. Curto Antunes
- 7 M. Hassan
Substitutes
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 5 A. Makki
- 37 A. Saeed
- 23 A. Abdul Rahma
- 77 H. Al Dubais
- 16 H. Alsebyani
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
- 15 L. Stojanović
- 2 M. Al Saeed
- 14 E. Bahri
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 97 E. Adnan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →