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Pro League

Al Nassr - Al Taawoun

08/28/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Nassr
2.3
Total xG
3.1
Al Taawoun
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

1:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ANAT

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.94x league average)
+1.48
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.56
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.05
Iñigo Martínez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Al Taawoun

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-1.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1.3 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.12
Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
84% of goal output missing (only 21% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Nassr: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    Al Nassr: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Sadio Mané: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)

  • 5
    Al Taawoun: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)

  • 6
    Al Taawoun: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

19%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

29%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 21% of Al Taawoun's goal threat available without Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
  • Tactical dominance: Al Nassr recently averaged 7.8 shots on target per match
  • Mathematical superiority: The model calculates a home win probability of 71%
Risk Factors
  • Al Nassr with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Al Taawoun with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Al Taawoun's goal production is stalling with 1.3 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.7
Overview

Al Nassr host Al Taawoun at Al-Awwal Park

Pro League match on August 28, 2026, 8:00 PM

League leaders Al Nassr with 9 points face 12th-placed Al Taawoun with 2 points

Clear favorite role for the home side

Form

Al Nassr is in outstanding shape with 5 wins in their last 5 matches

The form string is WWWWW

Al Taawoun has a mixed record with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The guests' form string is WLDLD

Statistics

Al Nassr scores an average of 2.68 goals per game and concedes 0.82

Strong home attack with 2.71 goals per home game

Al Taawoun averages 1.74 goals and concedes 1.35 per match

In away games the guests concede an average of 1.29 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches Al Nassr won twice with 2 draws

Al Taawoun is still waiting for a win against this opponent

The goal difference stands at 8:2 in favor of Al Nassr

The last meeting on January 26, 2026 ended in a 1:0 victory for the home team

Key Players

Cristiano Ronaldo scored 28 goals in 30 appearances

JoĂŁo FĂ©lix shines with 20 goals and 13 assists in 33 matches

Sadio Mané contributed 10 goals and 6 assists in 25 games

Goalkeepers

Nawaf Al-Aqidi guards the goal for Al Nassr with an average rating of 6.74

On the other side Mailson is in goal with a rating of 6.92 in 33 season matches

Al Nassr kept 17 clean sheets this season compared to 6 for Al Taawoun

Influences

Home advantage at Al-Awwal Park on natural grass

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match

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