Match report â
Al Nassr â Al Taawoun2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Nassr
2.34
Total xG
3.14
Al Taawoun
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Nassr | Al Taawoun |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.94x league average) | +1.48 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | â1.23 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | â0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | â0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.3 vs 1.7 season average) | â0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Iñigo MartĂnez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| 84% of goal output missing (only 21% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 21% of Al Taawoun's goal threat available without Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
- Tactical dominance: Al Nassr recently averaged 7.8 shots on target per match
- Mathematical superiority: The model calculates a home win probability of 71%
Risks
- Al Nassr with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Al Taawoun with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Al Taawoun's goal production is stalling with 1.3 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.7
All probabilities
Result
Al Nassr71%
Draw19%
Al Taawoun10%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Al Nassr or draw90%
Al Taawoun or draw29%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Al Nassr: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Al Nassr: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sadio Mané: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
- Al Taawoun: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)
- Al Taawoun: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Al Nassr 4-4-1-1 · Al Taawoun 3-4-3
Al Nassr
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 12 N. Boushal
- 3 M. Simakan
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 83 S. Al Najdi
- 21 K. Coman
- 11 S. Costa
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 10 S. Mané
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 5 Z. BelaĂŻd
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 19 O. Dorley
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 9 A. Hamdallah
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
Substitutes
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 4 N. Al Sharari
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 23 A. Yahya
- 26 Ă. MartĂnez Berridi
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 56 R. Al Ghamdi
- 14 S. Al Naji
- 53 A. Al Otaibi
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 14 S. Rashad Mohamed
- 70 A. Hendi
- 20 B. Al-Arini
- 27 A. Al Hassan
- 39 A. Al Ghamdi
- 45 M. Al-Saadi
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