Match report ā
Al Kholood ā Al Ahli3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Kholood
0.68
Total xG
2.24
Al Ahli
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Kholood | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | ā0.93 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | ā0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | ā0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ā0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ā0.04 | |
| Guga not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Galeno on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Franck KessiƩ not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Al Ahli with a 57% probability
- Al Ahli recently averaged 4.2 shots on target in their past matches
- Not nominated for the visitors are Riyad Mahrez, Galeno, and Franck KessiƩ
Risks
- Guga is missing for the hosts, leaving only 63% of the attacking threat available
- Al Ahli arrives with a rest period of 143 days since their last match
- Al Kholood conceded an average of 2.07 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Al Kholood15%
Draw28%
Al Ahli57%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Al Kholood or draw43%
Al Ahli or draw85%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:1
15%
0:2
13%
1:1
13%
0:0
12%
1:2
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ahli: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Al Kholood: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Al Kholood: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Ahli: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Al Kholood 4-2-3-1 Ā· Al Ahli 4-3-3
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 5 E. Utkus
- 25 M. Camara
- 38 S. Pinas
- 8 S. Cisse
- 6 J. Buckley
- 46 A. Alelewai
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
Al Ahli
- 16 E. Mendy
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 28 M. Demiral
- 3 R. IbaƱez da Silva
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro TrincĆ£o
- 17 I. Toney
- 9 F. Albirakan
Substitutes
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 70 M. Samili
- 48 M. Abdullah Al Yahya
- 24 O. Slimani
- 41 I. Barabaa
- 27 A. Al Ajyan
- 52 R. Jaman
- 21 A. Radif
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 47 W. Saleh
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 66 N. Masoud
- 29 M. Yousef
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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