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Pro League

Al Kholood - Al Ahli

08/29/2026, 04:05 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Kholood
0.7
Total xG
2.2
Al Ahli
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

0:2

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
AKAA

Al Kholood

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.78
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Guga not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Al Ahli

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.93
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.04
Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Galeno on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists)
Franck Kessié not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Ahli: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Kholood: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Al Kholood: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Al Ahli: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

15%

Draw

28%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

85%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Al Ahli with a 57% probability
  • Al Ahli recently averaged 4.2 shots on target in their past matches
  • Not nominated for the visitors are Riyad Mahrez, Galeno, and Franck Kessié
Risk Factors
  • Guga is missing for the hosts, leaving only 63% of the attacking threat available
  • Al Ahli arrives with a rest period of 143 days since their last match
  • Al Kholood conceded an average of 2.07 goals per home game
Overview

Al Kholood hosts Al Ahli at Ar-Rass Stadium

Pro League match on August 29, 2026, 6:05 PM

Al Ahli arrives in fourth place

Al Kholood currently occupies eighth place

Form

Al Kholood has a form of LWDDW

Most recently they secured a 3-2 home win against Al Taawoun

Al Ahli shows a form of WWLWD

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Al-Fayha

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Kholood scores an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.79

Al Ahli averages 2.09 goals scored and allows only 0.74 goals conceded

The visitors kept a clean sheet in 17 out of 34 matches this season

Al Kholood recorded 6 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Al Ahli won 3 of these matches

Al Kholood recorded 1 victory

The last encounter ended in a 3-0 win for Al Ahli

Key Players

John Buckley impresses in midfield with an average season rating of 7.09

Shaquille Pinas recently contributed 2 goals in his last 5 games

Edgaras Utkus stabilizes the defense with a season average rating of 6.80

Ivan Toney is the most dangerous attacker with 32 season goals and 7 assists

Valentin Atangana scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Saad Balobaid provided 2 assists during his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Hamed Al-Shanqity guards the goal for the hosts

Edouard Mendy stands between the posts for the visitors

Mendy has made 26 appearances so far this season

The visiting goalkeeper has kept 10 clean sheets on the road

Influences

The match takes place at the Ar-Rass Stadium

The historical record at this venue shows an average of 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 matches at this location

Al Ahli scored an average of 2.17 goals per away match

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