Match report ā
Al Fateh ā Al Ittihad0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Fateh
1.80
Total xG
2.93
Al Ittihad
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Fateh | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.96 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | ā0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | ā0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average) | ā0.29 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | ā0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | ā0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Mourad Batna on the bench (9 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Sofiane Bendebka not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jorge Fernandes not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 71% of goal output missing (only 34% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Severely weakened home side: Only 34% of typical starting XI strength is available, with key goal threats Mourad Batna and Sofiane Bendebka missing
- Tactical trend: Al Ittihad averaged 4.0 shots on target out of 11.6 total shots in recent matches
- Offensive momentum: Al Ittihad scores more frequently now, averaging 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6
Risks
- Al Fateh's attacking output is struggling, with only 0.25 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.21
- Al Ittihad enters this fixture with only 5 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Al Fateh51%
Draw26%
Al Ittihad23%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Al Fateh or draw77%
Al Ittihad or draw49%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ittihad: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Al Fateh: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Al Fateh: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Al Ittihad with Steven Bergwijn starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (15/10 games, last 25)
Lineups
Al Fateh 4-2-3-1 Ā· Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Å emper
- 15 S. Baattia
- 3 K. Boateng
- 17 M. Saadane
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 7 F. Al Zubaidi
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 10 L. HaraslĆn
- 9 A. Kanga
Al Ittihad
- 1 P. RajkoviÄ
- 32 A. Al Julaydan
- 2 D. HĆ©lio Pereira
- 15 H. Kadesh
- 25 F. Abdi
- 8 M. Ali
- 30 D. Lopy
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
Substitutes
- 19 R. Kelder
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 29 A. Al Masoud
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 23 J. dos Santos
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
- 4 J. Simic
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 42 M. Muath
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 29 F. Al Shamrani
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