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Pro League

Al Fateh - Al Ittihad

08/29/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Fateh
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Al Ittihad
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AFAI

Al Fateh

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.96
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.14
Mourad Batna on the bench (9 goals, 8 assists)
Sofiane Bendebka not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Jorge Fernandes not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
71% of goal output missing (only 34% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Al Ittihad

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.93
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.04

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Ittihad: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)

  • 2
    Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Al Fateh: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Al Fateh: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 5
    Al Ittihad with Steven Bergwijn starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (15/10 games, last 25)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Severely weakened home side: Only 34% of typical starting XI strength is available, with key goal threats Mourad Batna and Sofiane Bendebka missing
  • Tactical trend: Al Ittihad averaged 4.0 shots on target out of 11.6 total shots in recent matches
  • Offensive momentum: Al Ittihad scores more frequently now, averaging 1.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.6
Risk Factors
  • Al Fateh's attacking output is struggling, with only 0.25 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.21
  • Al Ittihad enters this fixture with only 5 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Al Fateh (17th place, 1 point) host Al Ittihad (3rd place, 7 points) at the Al Fateh Club Stadium

Pro League match on August 29, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 52%

An away win is valued at 23%

Form

Al Fateh in poor form with the form string LWDLL

The hosts recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Al Ittihad shows rising form with the string LLDWW

The visitors recorded 2 consecutive wins, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses overall

Statistics

Al Fateh averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game this season

At home, their production drops to 1.19 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded

Al Ittihad averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per match

In away matches, Al Ittihad scores an average of 1.65 goals

The historical home venue stats at Al Fateh Club Stadium show an average of 3.25 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Al Ittihad won 2, Al Fateh won 1, and 1 ended in a draw

The last meeting on January 29, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Al Ittihad scored 8 goals in these matches, compared to 6 goals for Al Fateh

Al Ittihad is historically dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in 31 season appearances

Zaydou Youssouf scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in 32 matches with an average rating of 7.07

Saeed Baattia has 1 goal in 31 games with a stable form trend

Steven Bergwijn stands out for the visitors with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Youssef En-Nesyri scored an impressive 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Houssem Aouar has contributed 8 goals and 4 assists so far this season

Goalkeepers

Adrian Semper is in goal for Al Fateh, having played one match at this venue

Al Fateh recorded a total of 7 clean sheets this season

Predrag Rajković played 30 times in goal for Al Ittihad this season

Al Ittihad kept a total of 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Al Fateh Club Stadium

Al Fateh scored an average of 1.19 goals and conceded 1.24 in home games

Al Ittihad conceded an average of 1.35 goals in away matches, while scoring 1.65

The historical goal average at this stadium stands at 3.25 goals per game

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