Match report â
Al Riyadh â NEOM SC1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Riyadh
1.06
Total xG
2.42
NEOM SC
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Riyadh | NEOM SC |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | â0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | â0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 45% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| SaĂŻd Benrahma not in squad (10 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Luciano RodrĂguez not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rayane Messi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- NEOM SC averaged 5.0 shots on target out of 19.4 total shots in recent matches
- Historical dominance with two victories for NEOM SC in both previous head-to-head encounters
- The mathematical model favors the visitors with an away win probability of 42%
Risks
- Al Riyadh has only 66% of their usual starting lineup strength active
- Short turnaround for Al Riyadh with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- High defensive vulnerability for Al Riyadh with an average of 1.85 goals conceded per season game
All probabilities
Result
Al Riyadh28%
Draw31%
NEOM SC42%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Al Riyadh or draw58%
NEOM SC or draw72%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Riyadh: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Al Riyadh 4-5-1 · NEOM SC 4-4-2
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 43 B. Mensah
- 77 L. Curto Antunes
- 7 M. Hassan
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 5 M. Sarr
- 44 N. Zeze
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 7 G. Masouras
- 18 A. Hejji
- 72 A. Koné
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 70 H. Camara
Substitutes
- 87 M. Tambakti
- 2 M. Al Saeed
- 14 E. Bahri
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 97 E. Adnan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 81 L. Arantes Maximiano
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 22 A. Al-Anzi
- 38 M. Al Dawsari
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