Match report ā
Al Khaleej ā Al Hilal1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Al Khaleej
0.89
Total xG
2.89
Al Hilal
2.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Khaleej | Al Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | ā0.79 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | ā0.39 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.7 season average) | ā0.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.31 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | ā0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | ā0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | ā0.04 | |
| Joshua King not in squad (20 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Konstantinos Fortounis not in squad (10 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Georgios Masouras not in squad (13 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Paolo Fernandes not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dimitrios Kourbelis not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 91% of goal output missing (only 25% available) | ||
| Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Karim Benzema on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Moteb Al-Harbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 67% available) |
Key factors
- Al Khaleej faces severe squad issues with only 26% active goals share available as Joshua King (20 goals, 2 assists) is missing
- Al Hilal averaged 7.6 shots on target per match in recent games with a dominant 57.2% possession
- Al Khaleej's goal production has dropped to 0.67 recently compared to Al Hilal's stable average of 2.60 goals
Risks
- Al Khaleej is missing their top scorer Joshua King (20 goals) due to an unknown injury
- The mathematical model expects an away win for Al Hilal with a probability of 61.9%
- Al Khaleej's defense has been vulnerable conceding an average of 1.82 goals per match this season
All probabilities
Result
Al Khaleej15%
Draw23%
Al Hilal62%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Al Khaleej or draw38%
Al Hilal or draw85%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
7%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Al Hilal: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
Al Khaleej 4-1-4-1 Ā· Al Hilal 4-3-3
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 13 A. Asiri
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 8 O. Mascarell GonzƔlez
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 99 M. Barrow
- 11 S. Al Jaman
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 78 A. Lajami
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 T. HernƔndez
- 28 M. Kanno
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 22 S. MilinkoviÄ-SaviÄ
- 27 S. Madash
- 75 M. MeĆÆtĆ©
- 38 C. Summerville
Substitutes
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 2 H. Al Jayzani
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 10 A. Fulgini
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
- 16 B. Munshi
- 28 H. Al Issa
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 4 Y. AkƧiƧek
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 93 A. Al Anazi
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 72 S. Dahal
- 55 M. Al Dawood
- 33 M. Al Owais
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