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Pro League

Al Khaleej - Al Hilal

08/28/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 5
Expected Goals
Al Khaleej
0.9
Total xG
2.9
Al Hilal
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

7%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
AKAH

Al Khaleej

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.39
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Joshua King not in squad (20 goals, 2 assists)
Konstantinos Fortounis not in squad (10 goals, 12 assists)
Georgios Masouras not in squad (13 goals, 3 assists)
Paolo Fernandes not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Dimitrios Kourbelis not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
91% of goal output missing (only 25% available)

Al Hilal

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.79
Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.31
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Malcom Filipe Silva de Oliveira not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists)
Karim Benzema on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Moteb Al-Harbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hilal: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Al Hilal: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

15%

Draw

23%

Away Win

62%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

38%

Away or Draw

85%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Al Khaleej faces severe squad issues with only 26% active goals share available as Joshua King (20 goals, 2 assists) is missing
  • Al Hilal averaged 7.6 shots on target per match in recent games with a dominant 57.2% possession
  • Al Khaleej's goal production has dropped to 0.67 recently compared to Al Hilal's stable average of 2.60 goals
Risk Factors
  • Al Khaleej is missing their top scorer Joshua King (20 goals) due to an unknown injury
  • The mathematical model expects an away win for Al Hilal with a probability of 61.9%
  • Al Khaleej's defense has been vulnerable conceding an average of 1.82 goals per match this season
Overview

Al Khaleej (10th place, 3 points) host Al Hilal (3rd place, 6 points) at the Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Pro League match on August 28, 2026, 6:00 PM

Al Hilal enters the match as the clear favorite

Form

Al Khaleej has a form string of LDLDD with no wins in their last five matches

Al Hilal remains highly stable with a form string of WDWWW and four wins

The hosts recently recorded three consecutive draws

Statistics

Al Hilal averages 2.50 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded per match

Al Khaleej has a season average of 1.59 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

Away from home Al Hilal concedes an average of only 0.89 goals

Head-to-Head

In four head-to-head matches Al Hilal won three times while Al Khaleej won once

The last meeting on May 5, 2026 ended in a 2-1 victory for Al Hilal

Al Hilal scored ten goals in total compared to six goals scored by Al Khaleej

Key Players

Pedro Rebocho has recorded seven assists this season with an average rating of 6.80

Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman has scored three goals and provided one assist

Anthony Moris reaches a season average rating of 7.01 in goal

RĆŗben Neves dominates with eleven goals and seven assists alongside a rating of 7.82

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic registered eight goals, seven assists and a rating of 7.47

Mohamed Kanno contributed five goals and four assists with a rating of 7.14

Goalkeepers

Anthony Moris has a season average rating of 7.01 in 33 appearances

Yassine Bounou has played 26 matches in goal with a rating of 6.85

Al Hilal kept 16 clean sheets this season while Al Khaleej recorded four

Influences

The Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium features an average of 3.6 goals per match

Al Khaleej averages 1.56 goals scored per home game

Al Hilal averages an impressive 2.44 goals scored in away matches

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