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Pro League

Al Hazm - Al Shabab

08/30/2026, 04:05 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Hazm
2.0
Total xG
3.4
Al Shabab
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
AHAS

Al Hazm

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+1.04
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Fábio Martins not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Nawaf Al-Habashi not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Elias Mokwana not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ahmed Al-Nakhli on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
L. Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 49% available)

Al Shabab

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
13% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hazm: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (6 of 16 total)

  • 2
    Al Shabab: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)

  • 3
    Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)

  • 4
    Al Shabab: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

24%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad loss: Al Hazm faces major personnel issues with only 49.7% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Improved form: Al Shabab has averaged 1.8 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 1.5
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 50% home win probability for Al Hazm
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Al Shabab concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game
  • Defensive struggles at home: Al Hazm allowed an average of 1.5 goals per home game this season
  • Historical scoring drought: Al Hazm has failed to score in their 2 previous head-to-head matches against Al Shabab
Overview

Al Hazm (12th place, 3 points) host Al Shabab (15th place, 2 points) at the Ar-Rass Stadium

Pro League match on August 30, 2026, 6:05 PM

Both teams are looking to escape the lower region of the table

Form

Al Hazm shows alternating results with the form string LWWWL

The home side recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches

Al Shabab is still waiting for their first win with the form string DDLDD

The visitors registered 4 draws and 1 loss in their recent run

Statistics

Al Hazm scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 1.68 goals this season

At home, Al Hazm averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

Al Shabab averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded on the road

Home matches of Al Hazm featured over 2.5 goals in 20 instances this season

Head-to-Head

Al Shabab dominates the history with 2 wins in 2 head-to-head matches

Al Hazm has scored 0 goals and conceded 5 goals against this opponent

The last meeting ended in a clear 4-0 away victory for Al Shabab

Key Players

Aboubacar Bah is a key midfielder with 3 goals, 2 assists and a 7.12 average rating

Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist this season

Yannick Carrasco leads Al Shabab's offense with 18 goals, 8 assists and a 7.62 rating

Josh Brownhill strengthens the midfield with 5 goals and a 6.89 average rating

Goalkeepers

Ibrahim Zaied starts in goal for Al Hazm with 4 clean sheets this season

Mory Diaw guards the goal for Al Shabab and has recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

The Ar-Rass Stadium averages 2.2 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 40%

Al Hazm has played counter-oriented with an average of 45% possession in recent matches

Al Hazm has 6 days of rest compared to 5 days for Al Shabab

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