Match report →
Al Hazm – Al Shabab1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Hazm
2.01
Total xG
3.41
Al Shabab
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hazm | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +1.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Fábio Martins not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nawaf Al-Habashi not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Elias Mokwana not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ahmed Al-Nakhli on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| L. Rosier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 85% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad loss: Al Hazm faces major personnel issues with only 49.7% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Improved form: Al Shabab has averaged 1.8 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 1.5
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 50% home win probability for Al Hazm
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Al Shabab concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game
- Defensive struggles at home: Al Hazm allowed an average of 1.5 goals per home game this season
- Historical scoring drought: Al Hazm has failed to score in their 2 previous head-to-head matches against Al Shabab
All probabilities
Result
Al Hazm50%
Draw24%
Al Shabab26%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Al Hazm or draw74%
Al Shabab or draw50%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (6 of 16 total)
- Al Shabab: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Al Shabab: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Hazm 4-2-3-1 · Al Shabab 4-2-3-1
Al Hazm
- 23 I. Zaied
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 24 A. Bah
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 7 E. Acolatse
- 9 A. Pululu
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
Substitutes
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 33 M. Al Ghamdi
- 8 M. Konate
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 95 J. Ateeq
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 5 A. Makki
- 37 A. Saeed
- 94 M. Al Rajeh
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
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