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NEOM SC – Al Khaleej3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
NEOM SC
1.26
Total xG
2.27
Al Khaleej
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEOM SC | Al Khaleej |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Alaa Hejji on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Joshua King not in squad (20 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 21% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Personnel crisis at Al Khaleej: Only 22% of the usual attacking threat is available without Joshua King and Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman
- Possession dominance: NEOM SC averaged 63.6% possession in recent matches and control the game
- Home and mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 40% home win probability and 1.26 expected home goals
Risks
- Struggling attack: NEOM SC's recent goal production is down to 0.8 on average compared to a season average of 1.3
- Defensive fragility away: Al Khaleej concede a high average of 1.94 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
NEOM SC40%
Draw32%
Al Khaleej28%
Double chance
NEOM SC or draw72%
Al Khaleej or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
NEOM SC 4-4-2 · Al Khaleej 4-2-3-1
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 2 M. Al Burayk
- 5 M. Sarr
- 44 N. Zeze
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 72 A. Koné
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 91 A. Lacazette
- 70 H. Camara
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 29 R. Al-Shanqiti
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 99 M. Barrow
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
Substitutes
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 4 K. Aldawsari
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 23 V. Vada
- 81 L. Arantes Maximiano
- 18 A. Hejji
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 22 A. Al-Anzi
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 10 A. Fulgini
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 16 B. Munshi
- 28 H. Al Issa
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