Match report →
Al-Fayha – Al Kholood2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al-Fayha
1.11
Total xG
2.31
Al Kholood
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Fayha | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.36 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Jason on the bench (5 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend and goal scoring: Al Kholood scores more frequently recently (2.3) compared to their season average (1.5), whereas Al-Fayha's goal production has stalled lately (0.3)
- Squad impact for the hosts: Al-Fayha plays without Jason (5T/8A), leaving them with only 72% of their usual starting lineup strength
- Tactical efficiency in attack: Al Kholood averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Al-Fayha's average of 3.2
Risks
- Al Kholood travels with only 5 days of rest since their last match
- Al-Fayha averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis indicates a high draw probability of 31.7%
All probabilities
Result
Al-Fayha32%
Draw32%
Al Kholood37%
Double chance
Al-Fayha or draw63%
Al Kholood or draw68%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Kholood: 72% of all goals in the first half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Al Kholood: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al-Fayha: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al-Fayha: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 11 games)
- Al Kholood: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Al-Fayha 4-3-3 · Al Kholood 4-3-3
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 7 N. Al-Harthi
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
- 10 J. Sakala
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 5 E. Utkus
- 25 M. Camara
- 38 S. Pinas
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 8 S. Cisse
- 6 J. Buckley
- 46 A. Alelewai
- 22 J. Domingues
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
Substitutes
- 35 S. Ganvoula M'boussy
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 47 M. Al Dowaish
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 70 M. Samili
- 48 M. Abdullah Al Yahya
- 24 O. Slimani
- 23 Y. Madani
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
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