Match report →
Al Taawoun – Al Fateh0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Taawoun
1.41
Total xG
2.35
Al Fateh
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Taawoun | Al Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.66 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 43% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Fahad Aqeel Al-Zubaidi not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 76% available) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head dominance: Al Taawoun won all of the last 4 direct encounters
- Tactical possession: Al Taawoun averaged 3.6 shots on target with 55% possession in recent matches
- Win probability: The mathematical model calculates a 46% chance for a home victory
Risks
- Offensive drought for Al Taawoun: Recently averaged only 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Attacking crisis for Al Fateh: Recently averaged just 0.33 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Away defensive issues: Al Fateh concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Al Taawoun46%
Draw30%
Al Fateh23%
Double chance
Al Taawoun or draw77%
Al Fateh or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Fateh: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Al Fateh: 4 of 9 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Al Taawoun: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Al Fateh: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 12 total)
Lineups
Al Taawoun 4-2-3-1 · Al Fateh 4-2-3-1
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 6 M. Alhurayji
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 19 O. Dorley
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 47 Y. El Bahraoui
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 9 A. Hamdallah
Al Fateh
- 1 A. Šemper
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 17 M. Saadane
- 78 A. Anwar Al-Suwailem
- 16 A. Al Khaibari
- 8 M. Lixandru
- 28 Z. Youssouf
- 11 M. Batna
- 80 F. Al Abdulwahed
- 10 L. Haraslín
- 9 A. Kanga
Substitutes
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 14 S. Rashad Mohamed
- 43 N. Al Hawairy
- 70 A. Hendi
- 20 B. Al-Arini
- 27 A. Al Hassan
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 19 R. Kelder
- 4 Z. Aljari
- 49 S. Al-Shurafa
- 87 S. Bin Mahmoud Al Tumbukti
- 18 A. Al Fawaz
- 94 W. Al Enazi
- 29 A. Al Masoud
- 63 M. Khaled Alshqaq
- 21 J. Ramos
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