Match report →
Al Ahli – Al Riyadh5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Ahli
2.61
Total xG
3.40
Al Riyadh
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ahli | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | +1.54 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 76% available) |
Key factors
- Reduced starting strength for Al Ahli: Riyad Mahrez (4 goals, 8 assists) and Firas Al-Buraikan (5 goals, 1 assist) are not in the lineup
- Mathematical analysis indicates a high home win probability of 75% with 2.61 expected home goals
- Extreme defensive weakness for the visitors, averaging 2.35 goals conceded per away match this season
Risks
- Al Ahli with only 3 days of rest since their last match, significantly less recovery time than their opponent
- Al Ahli averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Al Ahli75%
Draw17%
Al Riyadh8%
Double chance
Al Ahli or draw92%
Al Riyadh or draw25%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
1:1
8%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Riyadh: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Al Ahli: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Ahli 4-2-3-1 · Al Riyadh 4-4-2
Al Ahli
- 16 E. Mendy
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 19 A. Bondarenko
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 14 E. Bahri
- 11 H. Al-Ali
- 77 L. Curto Antunes
Substitutes
- 21 A. Radif
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 30 Z. Aljohani
- 47 W. Saleh
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 66 N. Masoud
- 72 S. Al-Jadani
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 87 M. Tambakti
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 97 E. Adnan
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 29 S.Al-Matar
- 24 A. Al-Shahrani
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