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Pro League

Al Ahli - Al Riyadh

09/04/2026, 06:00 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Ahli
2.6
Total xG
3.4
Al Riyadh
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AAAR

Al Ahli

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.54
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.15
Riyad Mahrez not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Firas Al-Buraikan on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Al Riyadh

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.45
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.09
35% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Riyadh: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)

  • 2
    Al Ahli: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

75%

Draw

17%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

25%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Reduced starting strength for Al Ahli: Riyad Mahrez (4 goals, 8 assists) and Firas Al-Buraikan (5 goals, 1 assist) are not in the lineup
  • Mathematical analysis indicates a high home win probability of 75% with 2.61 expected home goals
  • Extreme defensive weakness for the visitors, averaging 2.35 goals conceded per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • Al Ahli with only 3 days of rest since their last match, significantly less recovery time than their opponent
  • Al Ahli averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Al Ahli (8th place, 6 points) host Al Riyadh (12th place, 4 points) at the Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Pro League match on September 4, 2026, 8:00 PM

The hosts enter the match as clear favorites

Form

Al Ahli in mediocre form (LWDLL) with two consecutive losses recently

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Al Riyadh (WLLDW) recently secured a victory against NEOM SC

The visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their past 5 games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Ahli scored an average of 2.09 goals per match this season and conceded an average of 0.74

In home games, they scored an average of 2.05 goals while conceding only 0.59 per match

Al Riyadh scored an average of 1.03 goals per match and conceded an average of 1.85

Away from home, the visitors average 1.06 goals scored and 2.35 goals conceded per match

Al Ahli kept 17 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Historical balance heavily favors the home side

In 4 head-to-head matches, Al Ahli achieved 3 wins and 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 8:1 in favor of Al Ahli

The last encounter ended in a 1-0 victory for Al Ahli

Key Players

Ivan Toney scored 32 goals and provided 7 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.51

Galeno contributed 1 goal and 7 assists, maintaining a season rating of 7.05

Valentin Atangana scored 5 goals this season with an average rating of 6.91

Teddy Okou recorded 1 goal and 8 assists with a rating of 6.90 this term

Leandro Antunes has already scored 7 goals this season with a rating of 7.24

Milan Borjan holds an average season rating of 6.81 in goal

Goalkeepers

Edouard Mendy guards the goal for Al Ahli, maintaining an average rating of 6.87

His team kept 17 clean sheets this season

Milan Borjan is in goal for Al Riyadh, showing a season rating of 6.81

The visitors achieved 4 clean sheets so far this term

Influences

Strong home record for Al Ahli, averaging 2.05 goals scored at home

Historical matches at this venue featured an average of 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 1 out of 2 matches at this stadium

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