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Pro League

Al Ittihad - Al Nassr

09/05/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Ittihad
1.0
Total xG
3.3
Al Nassr
2.3
Most Likely Scores

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

1:1

9%

0:3

8%

1:3

8%
What influences the xG?
AIAN

Al Ittihad

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Youssef En-Nesyri on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.64x league average)
+1.26
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.69
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.12
IƱigo Martƭnez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Al Nassr: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Al Nassr: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Al Ittihad: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)

  • 5
    Sadio ManƩ: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

13%

Draw

20%

Away Win

67%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

33%

Away or Draw

87%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Al Nassr's offensive dominance with an average of 3.2 goals in recent matches compared to Al Ittihad's 1.5
  • Al Nassr averaged a strong 7.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high away win probability of 67%
Risk Factors
  • Al Ittihad will have to play without key attacker Youssef En-Nesyri who is not in the lineup
  • Al Ittihad conceded an average of 2 goals per game in their most recent matches
Overview

Al Ittihad (8th place, 8 points) host Al Nassr (2nd place, 12 points) at the Alinma Stadium

Pro League match on September 5, 2026, 6:00 PM

Al Nassr travel as unbeaten league runners-up and are clear favorites with a predicted win probability of 67%

Form

Home team Al Ittihad show a form trend of LDWWD over their recent matches

Away team Al Nassr arrive with a perfect winning streak of WWWWW

Al Nassr secured 5 wins in their last 5 matches, while Al Ittihad recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Al Nassr showcase an outstanding offense, scoring an average of 2.68 goals per game this season

Al Ittihad average 1.62 goals scored but also concede 1.41 goals per game

Defensive strength favors the visitors, who have kept 17 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins for each team in the last 4 head-to-head matches

The last meeting on February 6, 2026, ended in a 2:0 victory for Al Nassr

Overall, Al Ittihad scored 5 goals and Al Nassr scored 7 goals in these direct duels

Key Players

Houssem Aouar leads Al Ittihad's midfield with 8 goals and 4 assists

Steven Bergwijn is in rising form, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

For Al Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo stands out with 28 goals, alongside JoĆ£o FĆ©lix who has 20 goals and 13 assists

Goalkeepers

Predrag Rajković starts in goal for Al Ittihad with a season average rating of 6.84

Nawaf Al-Aqidi plays in goal for Al Nassr, a team that has achieved 17 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Alinma Stadium

The venue average stands at 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at the Alinma Stadium

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