Match report →
Al Ittihad – Al Nassr2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Ittihad
0.96
Total xG
3.29
Al Nassr
2.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ittihad | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +1.26 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Youssef En-Nesyri on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Iñigo Martínez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Al Nassr's offensive dominance with an average of 3.2 goals in recent matches compared to Al Ittihad's 1.5
- Al Nassr averaged a strong 7.4 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high away win probability of 67%
Risks
- Al Ittihad will have to play without key attacker Youssef En-Nesyri who is not in the lineup
- Al Ittihad conceded an average of 2 goals per game in their most recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Ittihad13%
Draw20%
Al Nassr67%
Double chance
Al Ittihad or draw33%
Al Nassr or draw87%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
1:1
9%
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Nassr: 12 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Al Nassr: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Nassr: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Al Ittihad: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)
- Sadio Mané: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
Lineups
Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1 · Al Nassr 4-4-1-1
Al Ittihad
- 1 P. Rajković
- 32 A. Al Julaydan
- 2 D. Hélio Pereira
- 15 H. Kadesh
- 25 F. Abdi
- 30 D. Lopy
- 8 M. Ali
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
Al Nassr
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 12 N. Boushal
- 3 M. Simakan
- 5 A. Al Amri
- 83 S. Al Najdi
- 21 K. Coman
- 20 ?. Borges Damaceno
- 11 S. Costa
- 10 S. Mané
- 79 J. Sequeira
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Substitutes
- 5 R. Rios
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 13 M. Shanqeeti
- 42 M. Muath
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
- 9 A. Al Hamdan
- 4 N. Al Sharari
- 17 A. Alkhaibari
- 23 A. Yahya
- 6 S. Al Nasser
- 24 B. Krepski
- 60 S. Haqawi
- 70 A. Aman
- 14 S. Al Naji
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