Match report →
Al Shabab – Al Hilal0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Shabab
1.15
Total xG
3.58
Al Hilal
2.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Shabab | Al Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | +1.21 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Theo Hernández not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Expected dominance: The model calculates a 65% win probability for Al Hilal with 2.44 expected goals
- Tactical attacking power: Al Hilal averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Form disparity: Al Hilal won their last 5 matches while Al Shabab are winless in their last 5 games
Risks
- Fatigue: Al Hilal have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive vulnerability: Al Shabab concede an average of 1.68 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Al Shabab15%
Draw20%
Al Hilal65%
Double chance
Al Shabab or draw35%
Al Hilal or draw85%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Al Shabab: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)
- Al Hilal: 34% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (11 of 32)
Lineups
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al Hilal 4-4-2
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
Al Hilal
- 37 Y. Bounou
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 28 M. Kanno
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 38 C. Summerville
- 27 S. Madash
- 11 O. Watkins
Substitutes
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 37 A. Saeed
- 94 M. Al Rajeh
- 77 H. Al Dubais
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 74 A. Hadhood
- 99 H. Al-Khorayef
- 75 M. Meïté
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 72 S. Dahal
- 55 M. Al Dawood
- 44 S. Al Muthary
- 33 M. Al Owais
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