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Pro League

Al Shabab - Al Hilal

09/04/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Al Shabab
1.1
Total xG
3.6
Al Hilal
2.4
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

8%

0:3

7%

2:2

5%

1:4

5%
What influences the xG?
ASAH

Al Shabab

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Al Hilal

Attack strength (1.74x league average)
+1.21
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.24
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.13
Theo HernƔndez not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 3
    Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)

  • 4
    Al Shabab: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)

  • 5
    Al Hilal: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)

  • 6
    Al Hilal: 34% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (11 of 32)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

15%

Draw

20%

Away Win

65%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

35%

Away or Draw

85%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Expected dominance: The model calculates a 65% win probability for Al Hilal with 2.44 expected goals
  • Tactical attacking power: Al Hilal averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Form disparity: Al Hilal won their last 5 matches while Al Shabab are winless in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Al Hilal have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive vulnerability: Al Shabab concede an average of 1.68 goals per match
Overview

Al Shabab host Al Hilal at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Pro League match on September 4, 2026, 8:00 PM

League leaders Al Hilal travel as clear favorites to face 13th-placed Al Shabab

Form

Al Shabab form: DLDDD (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)

Al Hilal form: WWWWW (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)

Al Hilal are on a perfect 5-game winning streak

Statistics

Al Shabab score an average of 1.29 goals and concede 1.68 goals per match

Al Hilal average an outstanding 2.5 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded

Al Shabab average 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded at home

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Al Hilal won 3 times with 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a high-scoring 5-3 away win for Al Hilal

Key Players

Yannick Carrasco contributed 18 goals and 8 assists this season

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic stands out with 8 goals and 7 assists for Al Hilal

RĆŗben Neves scored 11 goals and provided 7 assists this season

Not nominated: Theo HernƔndez (5 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Yassine Bounou made 26 appearances in goal for Al Hilal

Mory Diaw is in goal for Al Shabab, who recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Al Hilal achieved 16 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

Al Shabab scored 28 goals and conceded 36 goals in their home matches

Matches at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium averaged 5.4 total goals recently

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