Match report →
Al Ittihad – Al-Fayha2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Ittihad
1.67
Total xG
3.26
Al-Fayha
1.59
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Ittihad | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.73 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form and momentum: Al Ittihad are unbeaten in 5 matches (DWWDW), while Al-Fayha are winless in 5 matches (LLLDD)
- Tactical metric: Al Ittihad averaged 4.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- High-scoring venue: The Alinma Stadium has a high-scoring history with an average of 3.4 goals per game
Risks
- High workload: Al Ittihad have a shorter recovery time with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away defensive issues: Al-Fayha concede a worrying average of 2.12 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Al Ittihad39%
Draw26%
Al-Fayha35%
Double chance
Al Ittihad or draw65%
Al-Fayha or draw61%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Ittihad: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al-Fayha: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al Ittihad: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
Lineups
Al Ittihad 4-2-3-1 · Al-Fayha 4-4-1-1
Al Ittihad
- 50 M. Alabsi
- 4 J. Simic
- 2 D. Hélio Pereira
- 15 H. Kadesh
- 25 F. Abdi
- 30 D. Lopy
- 5 R. Rios
- 27 A. Alghamdi
- 10 H. Aouar
- 34 S. Bergwijn
- 9 G. Ilenikhena
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 15 P. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 6 A. Al Hussain
- 10 J. Sakala
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
Substitutes
- 21 Y. En-Nesyri
- 60 R. Kaabi
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 13 M. Shanqeeti
- 42 M. Muath
- 88 O. Al Marwash
- 66 M. Ali Barnawi
- 29 F. Al Shamrani
- 22 M. Al Sahafi
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 47 M. Al Dowaish
- 12 T. Al Jaadi
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 27 S. Al-Jabri
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