Match report →
Al-Qadsiah – Al Ahli3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al-Qadsiah
1.49
Total xG
2.61
Al Ahli
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al-Qadsiah | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Absences compensated: Al-Qadsiah has 95% of its seasonal goal production available despite missing players
- Tactical dominance: Al-Qadsiah recently averaged an impressive 6.4 shots on target per game with 60% possession
- Strong home record: Al-Qadsiah scores an average of 2.5 goals at home and the mathematical model calculates a 44% probability of a home win
Risks
- Heavy schedule: Al Ahli travels with only 4 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Defensive instability: Al Ahli conceded an average of 1.4 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 0.90
- Balanced head-to-head: The historical record shows 2 wins for each team in 4 games without a single draw
All probabilities
Result
Al-Qadsiah44%
Draw29%
Al Ahli27%
Double chance
Al-Qadsiah or draw73%
Al Ahli or draw56%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al-Qadsiah: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Al Shabab: 2 goals (80', 90+3')
- Al Ahli: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Al-Qadsiah 3-4-2-1 · Al Ahli 4-2-3-1
Al-Qadsiah
- 1 K. Casteels
- 4 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 6 J. Fernández Iglesias
- 17 P. Álvarez Sosa
- 2 M. Al Shamat
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 5 J. Weigl
- 22 C. Baah
- 33 J. Quiñones Quiñones
- 10 M. Aljuwayr
- 32 M. Retegui
Al Ahli
- 16 E. Mendy
- 46 R. Hamidou
- 28 M. Demiral
- 3 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 31 S. Yaslam Balobaid
- 6 V. Atangana Edoa
- 8 E. Spertsyan
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 7 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 13 W. Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno
- 17 I. Toney
Substitutes
- 46 A. Alelewai
- 7 T. Al-Ammar
- 9 A. Al Salem
- 12 Y. Al Shahrani
- 15 M. Al Qahtani
- 28 A. Al Kassar
- 77 S. Ali Huran
- 27 E. Houssa
- 18 A. Al Jaber
- 21 A. Radif
- 15 S. Baattia
- 1 A. Alsanbi
- 5 M. Sulaiman
- 47 W. Saleh
- 2 Z. Al Hawsawi
- 66 N. Masoud
- 29 M. Yousef
- 11 M. Al Mutairi
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