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Pro League

Al-Qadsiah - Al Ahli

09/08/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Al-Qadsiah
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Al Ahli
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AL-AA

Al-Qadsiah

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.35
Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.00
Full strength squad available

Al Ahli

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.44
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al-Qadsiah: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Al Shabab: 2 goals (80', 90+3')

  • 2
    Al Ahli: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Absences compensated: Al-Qadsiah has 95% of its seasonal goal production available despite missing players
  • Tactical dominance: Al-Qadsiah recently averaged an impressive 6.4 shots on target per game with 60% possession
  • Strong home record: Al-Qadsiah scores an average of 2.5 goals at home and the mathematical model calculates a 44% probability of a home win
Risk Factors
  • Heavy schedule: Al Ahli travels with only 4 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Defensive instability: Al Ahli conceded an average of 1.4 goals in recent matches, exceeding their season average of 0.90
  • Balanced head-to-head: The historical record shows 2 wins for each team in 4 games without a single draw
Overview

Al-Qadsiah (3rd place, 12 points) host Al Ahli (6th place, 9 points) at the EGO STADIUM

Pro League match on September 8, 2026, 8:00 PM

A crucial clash in the upper half of the table

Form

Al-Qadsiah shows stable form with the record DWWLW

Recently they secured a 2-0 win against NEOM SC

Al Ahli arrives with a record of WDLLW

The visitors recently defeated Al Riyadh 5-0

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al-Qadsiah scores an impressive average of 2.5 goals per home game

This season the home team concedes an average of only 1 goal per match

Al Ahli scores an average of 2.17 goals per away game

The visitors have a defensive season average of only 0.74 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the teams

The record is completely even with 2 wins for each side

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 home win for Al-Qadsiah

A total of 14 goals were scored in these meetings

Key Players

Julián Quiñones shines with 33 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.68

Musab Al-Juwayr contributed 6 goals and 11 assists with a rating of 7.60

Mateo Retegui scored 16 goals and provided 1 assist with a rating of 7.17

Ivan Toney stands out with 32 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.51

Galeno provided 7 assists and holds an average rating of 7.05

Saad Balobaid recently provided 2 assists and achieved a rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Koen Casteels has kept 10 clean sheets so far this season

Edouard Mendy has kept a clean sheet 17 times this campaign

Both goalkeepers provide a strong defensive foundation for this match

Influences

Al-Qadsiah's home advantage is highlighted by their average of 2.5 home goals scored per game

The EGO STADIUM has seen an average of 2.4 goals per match in recent games

The grass surface offers familiar conditions for both teams

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