Match report →
Al Hilal – NEOM SC0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Al Hilal
1.62
Total xG
2.41
NEOM SC
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hilal | NEOM SC |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | −0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Sultan Mandash on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Theo Hernández not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Absolute dominance: Table leaders Al Hilal have a flawless form of 5 consecutive wins
- Offensive class: Al Hilal score an average of 2.5 goals per game and are predicted to score 1.62 goals in this match
- Tactical advantage: Al Hilal averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Rest days: Al Hilal with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data quality regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Al Hilal55%
Draw28%
NEOM SC17%
Double chance
Al Hilal or draw83%
NEOM SC or draw45%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hilal: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Al Hilal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- NEOM SC: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 11 games)
Lineups
Al Hilal 4-1-4-1 · NEOM SC 5-3-2
Al Hilal
- 33 M. Al Owais
- 2 M. Mahzari
- 87 H. Al Tambakti
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 8 R. Da Silva Neves
- 7 G. Martinelli Silva
- 22 S. Milinković-Savić
- 28 M. Kanno
- 38 C. Summerville
- 11 O. Watkins
NEOM SC
- 1 M. Bulka
- 15 A. Abdulmalik
- 55 M. Al Dosari
- 44 N. Zeze
- 5 M. Sarr
- 19 M. Abu Taha
- 18 A. Hejji
- 72 A. Koné
- 77 M. Saeed Al Saad
- 14 Khalil Alabsi
- 91 A. Lacazette
Substitutes
- 75 M. Meïté
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 17 M. Al Yami
- 77 N. Al Habashi
- 18 M. Al Hawsawi
- 27 S. Madash
- 72 S. Dahal
- 55 M. Al Dawood
- 44 S. Al Muthary
- 75 K. Al Rammah
- 8 F. Al-Ghamdi
- 6 A. Alhassan
- 27 I. Hawsawi
- 23 V. Vada
- 2 M. Al Burayk
- 81 L. Arantes Maximiano
- 70 H. Camara
- 22 A. Al-Anzi
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