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Pro League

Al Kholood - Al Shabab

09/09/2026, 03:55 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Kholood
1.0
Total xG
2.5
Al Shabab
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
AKAS

Al Kholood

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.63
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
John Buckley on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Abdulaziz Al-Aliwa on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 31% available)

Al Shabab

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.85
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.66
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Kholood: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Al Kholood: 70% of all goals in the first half (14 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)

  • 4
    Al Kholood: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

29%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Squad strength: Al Kholood are heavily hit with John Buckley (2G, 4A) and Abdulaziz Al-Aliwa (4G, 2A) missing, leaving only 32% of seasonal goal-scoring threat available
  • Tactical setup: Al Kholood averaged 4.8 shots on target per match with 47.4% possession in recent matches
  • Opposite trends: Al Kholood enter with positive momentum (DDWWD) compared to Al Shabab's negative form trend (LDDDL)
Risk Factors
  • Al Kholood concede an average of 2.07 goals per home match
  • Al Shabab have only 5 days of rest since their last match
  • Absence of midfielder T. Partey weakens the away team's center
Overview

Al Kholood (8th place, 9 points) host Al Shabab (15th place, 3 points) at Ar-Rass Stadium

Pro League match on September 9, 2026, 4:55 PM

The mathematical model favors the visitors with a 47% win probability

Form

Al Kholood are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

2 wins and 3 draws recorded recently

Form code: DDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Al Shabab are without a win in their last 5 games

3 draws and 2 losses in their latest run

Form code: LDDDL

Statistics

Al Kholood score an average of 1.15 goals and concede 1.79 goals per game

They concede a high average of 2.07 goals in home matches

Al Shabab score on average 1.29 goals and concede 1.68 goals

Historically, matches at this venue have seen an average of 2.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct head-to-head matches so far

Perfect balance with 2 wins for each side

The last meeting on February 7, 2026 ended in a 1-0 home win for Al Kholood

Key Players

For Al Kholood, Edgaras Utkus with 1 goal and 1 assist and Iker Kortajarena with 3 goals in the last 5 matches are key

Mansour Camara also shows rising form with 1 assist in recent games

Al Shabab rely on Yannick Carrasco who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Josh Brownhill with 1 goal and 1 assist and Yacine Adli with 1 assist also play vital roles

Goalkeepers

Hamed Al-Shanqity will play in goal for the hosts, who kept 6 clean sheets so far this season

Mory Diaw lines up for the visitors with a strong 7.03 rating, while Al Shabab kept 7 clean sheets overall

Influences

Al Kholood struggle at home conceding 2.07 goals per match on average

At the Ar-Rass Stadium, both teams scored in 60% of the historical games played here

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