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Al Kholood – Al Shabab2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Al Kholood
1.00
Total xG
2.51
Al Shabab
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Kholood | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.85 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| John Buckley on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Abdulaziz Al-Aliwa on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad strength: Al Kholood are heavily hit with John Buckley (2G, 4A) and Abdulaziz Al-Aliwa (4G, 2A) missing, leaving only 32% of seasonal goal-scoring threat available
- Tactical setup: Al Kholood averaged 4.8 shots on target per match with 47.4% possession in recent matches
- Opposite trends: Al Kholood enter with positive momentum (DDWWD) compared to Al Shabab's negative form trend (LDDDL)
Risks
- Al Kholood concede an average of 2.07 goals per home match
- Al Shabab have only 5 days of rest since their last match
- Absence of midfielder T. Partey weakens the away team's center
All probabilities
Result
Al Kholood24%
Draw29%
Al Shabab47%
Double chance
Al Kholood or draw53%
Al Shabab or draw76%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Kholood: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Kholood: 70% of all goals in the first half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Al Kholood: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Al Kholood 4-2-3-1 · Al Shabab 4-2-3-1
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 5 E. Utkus
- 25 M. Camara
- 38 S. Pinas
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 8 S. Cisse
- 77 A. Essomba Bikoula
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 3 M. Barry
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 11 D. Castelo Podence
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
Substitutes
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 30 M. Alshammari
- 70 M. Samili
- 24 O. Slimani
- 23 Y. Madani
- 27 A. Al Ajyan
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
- 55 A. Al Bulayhi
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 5 A. Makki
- 37 A. Saeed
- 33 Mohammed Al-Mahasneh
- 74 A. Hadhood
- 97 M. Khadari
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