Match report →
Al Hazm – Al Taawoun1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Hazm
1.77
Total xG
3.03
Al Taawoun
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Hazm | Al Taawoun |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.57 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Fábio Martins not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Abderrazak Hamdallah on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 54% of goal threat available, without Fábio Martins
- Only 43% of goal threat available, without Abderrazak Hamdallah
- Al Hazm averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Al Taawoun with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Al Taawoun conceding an average of 2.5 goals in recent matches
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Al Hazm48%
Draw26%
Al Taawoun26%
Double chance
Al Hazm or draw74%
Al Taawoun or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Hazm: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (7 of 16 total)
- Al Taawoun: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Al Hazm 4-2-3-1 · Al Taawoun 3-5-2
Al Hazm
- 23 I. Zaied
- 2 S. Al Rashed
- 4 S. Tanker
- 34 A. Al Dakheel
- 3 A. Ben Hmida
- 24 A. Bah
- 17 B. Mugisha
- 22 A. Al Dhuwayhi
- 28 S. Bendebka
- 7 E. Acolatse
- 9 A. Pululu
Al Taawoun
- 1 M. Tenorio dos Santos
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 93 A. Al Slaluli
- 32 M. Al Mufarrij
- 88 M. Plamenov Petkov
- 18 A. El Mahdioui
- 19 O. Dorley
- 8 P. Guiagon
- 14 S. Rashad Mohamed
- 10 N. Bajrami
- 20 B. Al-Arini
Substitutes
- 5 M. Issa Al Yami
- 10 A. Sayoud
- 13 A. Al-Shanqiti
- 27 A. Al-Nakhli
- 70 A. Al-Shamrani
- 33 M. Al Ghamdi
- 11 W. Al-shangeati
- 29 A. Diakite
- 77 M. Al-Hamdani
- 16 F. Al Ghamdi
- 7 M. Al Kuwaykibi
- 17 M. Al-Aqel
- 4 N. Al Haleel
- 23 R. Altulayhi
- 40 I. Mahnashi
- 70 A. Hendi
- 30 A. Al Jadani
- 55 J. Collahuazo Vaca
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