Match report →
Al Khaleej – Al Riyadh0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Khaleej
2.06
Total xG
3.37
Al Riyadh
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Khaleej | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.63 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.43 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.39 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Joshua King not in squad (20 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Leandro Antunes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bernard Mensah not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 66% available) |
Key factors
- Home Win Prediction: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 54% probability
- Squad crisis: Al Khaleej only has 31% of their goal threat available without Joshua King and Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman
- Tactical Metric: Al Khaleej averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Visitor squad impact: Leandro Antunes and Bernard Mensah are missing, leaving Al Riyadh with only 67% of their goal threat available
- Defensive issues away: Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
- Struggling offense: Al Khaleej's goal production is stalling with only 0.33 goals in recent games compared to a season average of 1.62
All probabilities
Result
Al Khaleej54%
Draw24%
Al Riyadh23%
Double chance
Al Khaleej or draw77%
Al Riyadh or draw46%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Al Riyadh: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
Lineups
Al Khaleej 4-1-4-1 · Al Riyadh 4-1-4-1
Al Khaleej
- 49 A. Moris
- 39 S. Al Hamsal
- 4 B. Kouyate
- 3 M. Al Khabrani
- 5 P. Braga Rebocho
- 8 O. Mascarell González
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 12 M. Kanabah
- 19 M. Crespo da Silva
- 10 A. Fulgini
- 90 T. Al Khaibri
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 2 Sultan Al-Essa
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 6 A. Keita
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 14 E. Bahri
- 7 M. Hassan
Substitutes
- 13 A. Asiri
- 14 A. Al Shaafi
- 15 M. Hamzi
- 11 S. Al Jaman
- 96 M. Al-Haidari
- 99 M. Barrow
- 17 A. Al Hafith
- 29 R. Al-Shanqiti
- 28 H. Al Issa
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 11 H. Al-Ali
- 16 F. Al-Sobhi
- 97 E. Adnan
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 29 S.Al-Matar
- 24 A. Al-Shahrani
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