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Pro League

Al Khaleej - Al Riyadh

09/07/2026, 03:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Khaleej
2.1
Total xG
3.4
Al Riyadh
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AKAR

Al Khaleej

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.43
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.39
Joshua King not in squad (20 goals, 2 assists)
Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

Al Riyadh

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.63
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Leandro Antunes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Bernard Mensah not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Khaleej: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Al Riyadh: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

24%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Home Win Prediction: The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 54% probability
  • Squad crisis: Al Khaleej only has 31% of their goal threat available without Joshua King and Saleh Mohammed Fares Al Jaman
  • Tactical Metric: Al Khaleej averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Visitor squad impact: Leandro Antunes and Bernard Mensah are missing, leaving Al Riyadh with only 67% of their goal threat available
  • Defensive issues away: Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
  • Struggling offense: Al Khaleej's goal production is stalling with only 0.33 goals in recent games compared to a season average of 1.62
Overview

Al Khaleej (16th place, 3 points) host Al Riyadh (12th place, 4 points) at the EGO STADIUM

Pro League match on September 7, 2026, 4:30 PM

A crucial bottom-half clash in the Pro League

Form

Al Khaleej form: LDDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts are still searching for their first win with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Al Riyadh form: LLDWL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent run

Statistics

Al Khaleej averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded per game this season

Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.35 goals per away game

Al Khaleej scored 1.56 goals per home game on average

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams won 1 game each with 2 matches ending in a draw

The last direct duel on February 14, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Pedro Rebocho has recorded 7 assists this season

Majed Kanabah played 32 league matches this season

Teddy Okou has already scored 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Anthony Moris represents Al Khaleej with a season rating of 7.01

Milan Borjan features for Al Riyadh with an average rating of 7.05

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the EGO STADIUM

Historically this venue averages 3.6 goals per game

The BTTS rate at the EGO STADIUM is 60%

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