Match report →
Al Riyadh – Al Kholood2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Riyadh
1.35
Total xG
2.84
Al Kholood
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Riyadh | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.57 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Mahmoud Trezeguet not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leandro Antunes not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bernard Mensah not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 48% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 49% of typical attacking threat available without Mahmoud Trezeguet, Leandro Antunes, and Bernard Mensah
- Strong form: Al Kholood is unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws (DWWDW)
- Efficient offense: Al Kholood currently averages 2.2 goals per game, higher than their season average of 1.5 goals
Risks
- Offensive weakness for Al Riyadh, averaging only 2.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical struggles for Al Kholood, with 3 defeats in their last 4 head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Al Riyadh33%
Draw28%
Al Kholood39%
Double chance
Al Riyadh or draw61%
Al Kholood or draw67%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Kholood: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Al Kholood: 74% of all goals in the first half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- Al Riyadh: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)
- Al Riyadh: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al Kholood: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Al Riyadh 4-2-3-1 · Al Kholood 4-2-3-1
Al Riyadh
- 82 M. Borjan
- 79 F. Al Jayzani
- 67 M. Alkhaibari
- 26 R. Abascal Barros
- 12 H. Yahya
- 22 V. Lekhal
- 6 A. Keita
- 10 T. Lia Okou
- 19 H. Al Shurafaa
- 14 E. Bahri
- 11 H. Al-Ali
Al Kholood
- 1 H. Abdullah Yousef
- 15 R. Solan
- 5 E. Utkus
- 25 M. Camara
- 38 S. Pinas
- 8 S. Cisse
- 6 J. Buckley
- 70 M. Samili
- 10 I. Kortajarena Canellada
- 11 C. Gomes da Costa
- 22 J. Domingues
Substitutes
- 13 O. Abdulaziz Al Bowardi
- 23 H. Qasim
- 97 E. Adnan
- 5 H. Majrashi
- 17 H. Al Raqwani
- 29 S.Al-Matar
- 24 A. Al-Shahrani
- 3 Y. Al Mousa
- 20 Battal Al-Harthi
- 26 Y. bin Al Zubaidi
- 7 S. Al Qahimi Al Shehri
- 30 M. Alshammari
- 39 A. Aldawsari
- 24 O. Slimani
- 27 A. Al Ajyan
- 52 R. Jaman
- 47 A. Al Obaid
- 67 M. Al-Rashdi
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →