🇸🇦

Pro League

Al Shabab - Al-Fayha

09/12/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Al Shabab
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Al-Fayha
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ASAL-

Al Shabab

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.95
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.74
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
20% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Al-Fayha

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.38
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
+0.10
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 6 of 8 games (15 points lost)

  • 2
    Al-Fayha: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Al Shabab: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Historical head-to-head dominance: Al Shabab won 3 out of 4 matches against Al-Fayha, conceding only 1 goal
  • Weak away defense of the visitors: Al-Fayha concedes an average of 2.12 goals away from home and kept only one clean sheet on the road
  • Model prediction favors the home side: The mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Al Shabab with 1.76 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Physical fatigue: Al Shabab enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Form crisis on both sides: Both teams have been winless for 5 league matches (Al Shabab with DDDLL, Al-Fayha with LLDDL)
  • Declining offensive production: Both clubs are scoring less recently than their season average (Al Shabab 1.25 goals vs 1.4 season avg, Al-Fayha 1.00 vs 1.22)
Overview

Al Shabab hosts Al-Fayha at the Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Riyadh

Pro League match on September 12, 2026, 6:00 PM

Bottom-table clash between 15th-placed Al Shabab with 3 points and 11th-placed Al-Fayha with 5 points

Form

Al Shabab enters with a DDDLL form and is still searching for their first league win

Al-Fayha travels with a LLDDL form and is also winless in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Shabab scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per match

Al-Fayha struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals

The visitors have kept only one clean sheet in their away matches this season

Head-to-Head

Al Shabab dominates the head-to-head record with 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 matches

The goal difference of 5:1 favors the home side

The last encounter on February 1, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Al Shabab

Key Players

Yannick Carrasco stands out with a 7.43 rating, one goal, and one assist

Yacine Adli contributes in midfield with a 7.43 rating and one assist

Josh Brownhill recorded a 7.19 rating, one goal, and two assists

Lázaro leads the visitors with a 7.28 rating, two goals, and one assist

Hugo Moura added two goals this season with a 7.18 rating

Fashion Sakala has one goal with a 6.82 rating

Goalkeepers

Mory Diaw has made 3 appearances for Al Shabab with a 6.93 rating

Orlando Mosquera guards the goal for Al-Fayha with a 7.19 rating in 6 matches

Both defensive units have kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Al-Shabab Club Stadium is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.6 goals per match

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of the home matches

Al Shabab has a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest compared to Al-Fayha's 4

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.