Match report →
Al Shabab – Al-Fayha0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Al Shabab
1.76
Total xG
3.03
Al-Fayha
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Al Shabab | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.95 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | +0.10 | |
| 20% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical head-to-head dominance: Al Shabab won 3 out of 4 matches against Al-Fayha, conceding only 1 goal
- Weak away defense of the visitors: Al-Fayha concedes an average of 2.12 goals away from home and kept only one clean sheet on the road
- Model prediction favors the home side: The mathematical analysis calculates a 48% win probability for Al Shabab with 1.76 expected goals
Risks
- Physical fatigue: Al Shabab enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Form crisis on both sides: Both teams have been winless for 5 league matches (Al Shabab with DDDLL, Al-Fayha with LLDDL)
- Declining offensive production: Both clubs are scoring less recently than their season average (Al Shabab 1.25 goals vs 1.4 season avg, Al-Fayha 1.00 vs 1.22)
All probabilities
Result
Al Shabab47%
Draw26%
Al-Fayha26%
Double chance
Al Shabab or draw74%
Al-Fayha or draw53%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Shabab: dropped a lead in 6 of 8 games (15 points lost)
- Al-Fayha: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Al Shabab: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
Al Shabab 4-4-2 · Al-Fayha 4-1-4-1
Al Shabab
- 1 M. Diaw
- 17 M. Al-Thain
- 3 M. Barry
- 4 T. Jedvaj
- 21 D. Al Anazi
- 24 A. Al Obod
- 8 J. Brownhill
- 29 Y. Adli
- 10 Y. Ferreira Carrasco
- 9 R. Martínez Tobinson
- 49 R. Mathias da Silva
Al-Fayha
- 52 O. Mosquera
- 22 M. Al Baqawi
- 2 M. Al-Rashidi
- 25 O. Colley
- 24 A. Bamsaud
- 5 H. Moura Arruda da Silva
- 23 D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
- 30 A. Semedo Esteves
- 14 M. Al Beshe
- 10 J. Sakala
- 17 L. Vinicius Marques
Substitutes
- 6 A. Al Nashri
- 40 A. Al Asmari
- 2 M. Al Shwirekh
- 22 H. Al-Hammami
- 12 S. Al-Enezi
- 37 A. Saeed
- 23 A. Abdul Rahma
- 27 A. Al Hawsawi
- 97 M. Khadari
- 9 Abdulmonam Malek
- 21 Z. Al Sahafi
- 77 R. bin Enad Al Mutairi
- 1 A. Al-Deqeel
- 12 T. Al Jaadi
- 43 F. Alhubayshi
- 27 S. Al-Jabri
- 29 A. Addawi
- 40 Y. Souza de Santana
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